Yesterday was mostly anvils here in metro area with strongest storms to our east. However a strong outflow moved across low-elevations between 7:00 to 8:00 pm MST, with a few rumbles of thunder and light showers into early morning hours. The ALERT plot above is for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Here at house there was 0.08". Rain amounts at several RAWS sites to our east were right around 1 inch. Guthrie reported a gust to 74 mph during the storms - accurate?
The 00 UTC sounding from TWC below had slight CAPE and a wind profile continuing to support anvil spread to west from storms.
This morning's TWC sounding has changed significantly, partly due to storms and partly due to an anticyclone shift some to north and west. The wind profile (above) shows a shear profile above afternoon cloud base that is very favorable for organized and possibly severe thunderstorms, and much faster movement toward west. However, considerable heating will be needed.
The morning 500 mb analysis (from NCAR, below) shows a bean-shaped anticyclone centered around the Four Corners and a distinct inverted trough that's nearly overhead. This morning's NAM forecasts move this feature very slowly during next 24-hours while keeping it very active.
The 7:00 am visible satellite image - second below - shows heavy cloud cover over most of state, except for southeastern Arizona - certainly appears favorable for sunshine and good heating.
Finally, considerable MCS activity moved over the middle and upper GoC last night and early this morning - above is IR image from midnight. This seems to have led to a significant moisture surge at Yuma early this morning with a temperature drop, dewpoints increasing from 50s into 70s, and strong south to southeast winds. The early morning VAD wind profiles from Yuma radar indicate strong winds up to 6,000 ft above the radar. Think this may be the first surge profile this deep and strong so far this summer.
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