Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Still Waiting For Rain - July Fourth

First, on Sunday the 2nd there were some heavy storms along the Borderlands. Above is CG flash density (FD) for 24-hours ending at 09:00 am MST yesterday morning. Below is rainfall (from MesoWest) showing same period with a couple of amounts over an inch near Sierra Vista.

We are still waiting for first thunderstorm and rainfall of summer here at house, and a very cold outflow would be heavenly. Debris cloud (above) present south of Kitt Peak this morning from yesterday's storms, which stayed far away Tucson. The exception was a storm that formed over the Burro wildfire (see CG FD for 24-hours ending at 06:30 am this morning - below). Only two stations reported rainfall of more than a quarter of an inch yesterday - Nogales came in with a strong thunderstorm and 041". 

The Burro fire has continued burning fiercely and portions of it have been moving westward toward higher elevations of the Catalinas. This has led to closure of the the highway up the mountains and the evacuation of Summerhaven.

This morning's sounding at TWC (above from NCAR) indicates PW of almost 30 mm and some CAPE in the surface based BL - but again there is a hostile elevated layer above. If the middle clouds shown above drifted toward Tucson, it would improve chances for an afternoon thunderstorm. WRF model forecasts, however, keep storm activity along the border and southward.

The 500 mb pattern (12 UTC analysis below) shows two small anticyclone centers within the very large ridge - one over to the northeast of Tucson and the other over the White Mountains of California. This is a good pattern for the Borderlands and Sonora and could be good for us, if a bit more moisture and CAPE were added to the mixture.

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