Dreadful day yesterday - the one report of rain I found this morning was 0.07" at Rucker RAWS site in the Chiricahuas.
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The one thing that has occurred pretty much as called late this week is that the MCS activity in Mexico increased and shifted north. Top IR image shows very large MCS over northwestern Mexico at 0630z last night. The middle IR image shows all the widespread cloud debris that this system has left behind. It seems likely that a residual MCV will spin into northern Baja and southern California carrying some moisture from the MCS with it - thus, effectively bypassing Arizona. The debris cloud here over Tucson (mostly cirrus, but some middle cloud and ACCs) produced a great orange to purple sunrise (best weather of the week, but I wasn't carrying my camera). The bottom image shows the morning sounding at Tucson - quite a pathetic one, with almost no winds in the troposphere and continued very dry air in low levels. The balloon did manage to find an ACC, and the data are all goofed up from 600 to 450 mb with several super-adiababtic layers and an unrealistic 500 mb T of -8C.
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The NAM forecasts continue to push the 500 mb anticyclone northward as several pieces of the strung-out, inverted trough move westward across northern Mexico - so there remains some hope for an upturn tomorrow and Monday, assuming the atmosphere can somehow recover CAPE here north of the border.
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