Once again, the U of A versions of the WRF model had an accurate forecast yesterday - unfortunately, being right on with the advection of the dry, low-level air from the west (note that both the Marana and Ft. Huachuca wind profilers showed the strong push of northwesterly winds last night below 700 mb). The Phoenix (top) and Tucson (middle) soundings show the dry air present in low-levels this morning. The RAWS stations in the Rincons and Mt. Hopkins show significant drops in the dewpoints during the night. So, it looks like the main storm activity shifted to the east and into the borderlands today, with continued MCS activity in northwestern Mexico. The tropical disturbance off of Mexico came ashore last night, and thus didn't get a chance to be officially recognized.
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I continue to agree with Pat H. that things will improve this weekend. Surface pressures continue to fall over the deserts; MCS action continues just to the south; and an extended inverted trough at 500 mb will be crossing northern Mexico, helping push the anticyclone northward. So, I expect increased low-level moisture, especially by Sunday [see NAM forecast of 500 mbs for midnight Sunday (bottom)], and increased thunderstorm activity. Vertical wind profiles look quite favorable for strong storms beginning late saturday into Monday. So, a hopeful outlook.
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