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The RAP 500 mb analysis for 12z this morning (middle image) shows that the lobe of the subtropical anticyclone currently affecting the Southwest is centered off over northern Baja - not a good positioning at all (and unfortunately the 700 mb anticyclone is also out there this morning). However, up at 250 mb there is just a single, well-defined anticyclone that is centered over the Big Bend country of Texas. So, the overall setting is a bit chaotic this morning; however, this morning's NAM forecasts indicate a gradual improvement during the day and night. The 500 mb anticyclone is forecast to shift northeastward across south-central Arizona and be over western New Mexico by this time tomorrow. The 250 mb anticyclone shifts westward into northern Mexico - the net result being a much improved vertical wind profile by tomorrow.
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It appears that most activity today will be along the Borderlands and in Mexico and that cores will tend to move toward the south. However, with a good push of low-level moisture into southern Arizona during the night, activity should be much increased tomorrow. Indeed the NAM forecast of precipitation for the 12-hours ending at midnight tomorrow night (bottom image) has centered the action almost directly over Tucson. So, it will be very interesting to see what the morning U of A WRF runs indicate!
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