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I note that SLP is falling nicely across the state with drops of 2 to 3 mb during past 24-hours.
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The northward racing MCS of this morning crashed around 9 am. However, MCS activity is occurring further north in Mexico this afternoon. Nogales had a strong outflow passage from the south a bit ago.
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The evening Tucson sounding has no CAPE but the flawed RRS data are more than 6 mm too dry wrt GPS data - so there may be a bit of CAPE around at lower elevations - appears that there's certainly enough in middle-levels for early am ACC.
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Jim Means of Alpine, California, writes: Here in Southern California we're hoping for promising signs of not just the monsoon returning, but for the return of summer also. Thanks to the unshakable trough that's been sitting of the coast, we have had only one week of summer-like temperatures and monsoon action over here. Every day brings new record low high and low temperatures. July in San Diego was the coldest since 1933, and things are continuing cool in August. It looks like the models are promising that the westward expansion of the upper high will start beating back the trough, I only hope we get a little moisture along with that. We're starting to get some tropical action again in the Eastern Pacific so that should help.
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Even though NHC hasn't blessed it yet, there appears to have been a TD spinning off the southwest coast of Mexico this afternoon.
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Finally Pat Holbrook comments:
Ye of little faith...monsoon will be back this weekend as trof pulls out.
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I tried to write this in my discussion this morning, but apparently it didn't come across.
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