Three model forecasts of rainfall (ending around midnight) from this morning's observations are shown above.---------------------------------------
Areal coverage of rainfall in NAM is much less than the WRF forecasts. NAM forecasts heaviest rains from Tucson off to east and northeast. Almost no activity in north and also west halves of state.
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Both WRF forecasts indicate heaviest rains west of Tucson in central Pima county (from Baboquivri/Kitt Peaks region east into Avra Valley) stretching north into Maricopa County. Heavier amounts are indicated by the WRF-NAM forecast with a substantial area with amounts great than an inch and a half in central Pima County. Both WRF versions forecast some storms across the northern half of state. Note the extended swaths of heavier rain near and southwest of Flagstaff, indicating that the WRF may be trying to forecast a couple of supercells up there.
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