The new week starts out looking much like we're in a September transition pattern, with a 500 mb (see middle panel from NCAR RAP) trough over the west, strong shear, and some left-over subtropical moisture. The morning TWC sounding (see top panel from SPC) shows some CAPE for the surface lifted parcel, but only a small sliver of afternoon CAPE seems likely. Further, the upper-level warm air will probably strengthen some during the day. There may be some low top showers around again this afternoon, but overall the situation appears more hostile than yesterday and yesterday was pretty dismal.-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This morning's NAM forecasts indicate that the mid-upper level anticyclone will rebuild over northern Mexico and the Borderlands and become quite intense by the middle of the week. The bottom image shows the NAM 500 mb forecast valid Wednesday afternoon, with the 500 mb high centered just northeast of Tucson. Again, not very promising. However, the next few days should certainly allow the atmosphere to cook and to restablish a hot, deep desert boundary layer.
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