Last Day Of Year

Heavy overcast skies this morning - view above is toward the Rincons at 7:00 am MST.

IR satellite image (above from 1515 UTC) shows widespread cloud cover to our south and west.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate light rainfall at airport tonight and tomorrow. The GEFS POPs for the airport (below) max at almost 80 percent tomorrow.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for precipitation through 7:00 am tomorrow (below) indicates some fairly heavy amounts over eastern Pima County.

Current forecast graphic and morning forecast for the airport from the NWS Forecast office (above and below). Chart is marginally readable if you go to the NWS website. Looks like a damp ending for 2025 and start to 2026.

Nighttime Showers

View of heavy cloud cover and the Catalinas at 9 am MST this morning.

Showers and sprinkles affected parts of the metro area during the night. ALERT plots (above and below) are for 24-hours ending at 9 am. Here at the house there was 0.06" in the gauge at 9 am.

Rainfall forecast from the NWS this morning (below) calls for amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch today at the airport.

Holiday Update

View of the Catalinas at 11:00 am MST on Christmas Day (above) shows some blue sky sneaking in from the west.

Total rain amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) show a few sites with over half an inch, but with most amounts considerably less. Here at house we we had an additional 0.14" during the afternoon yesterday and last night (rain did not end until around 7:00 am this morning), giving us a total of 0.28".

Early Morning Showers

Overcast skies here at 8:35 am MST.

I checked the gauge at 7:35 am this morning and we had had 0.14" of rain. Totals around the area for 24-hours ending at 8:35 am shown above and below for the ALERT Network. Amounts around one to two tenths of an inch were common.

There continue to be showers over parts of the metro area at this time.

Some Rain Before New Years?

Another morning with colorful skies over the Rincons at 7:10 am MST.

Plumes from 06 UTC GEFS runs indicate slowly falling temperatures for much of remainder of 2025 (above). The POPs from the GEFS runs (below) indicate maximum chances for rain at the airport from the 29th through the 30th.

Current morning graphic from the NWS regarding southeast Arizona rain chances (above). The total rainfall to end of year (below from 06 UTC GFS) shows rainfall covering Arizona. The only rain here at house so far in December was just 0.01" on the 3rd.

Colorful Skies

Nice colors over the Rincons at 7:10 am MST this morning.

The coming week looks quiet, until a very slight chance for showers at Christmas (plumes above for QPF at the airport from 06 UTC GEFS runs).

Plumes for PW (above) indicate a big jump starting on the 23rd. The 06 UTC GFS forecast (below) for 24-hour rainfall ending at 5:00 pm on Christmas Day indicates a dry holiday here in southeast Arizona.

November Summary

 Quick update re November's weather here.

There was measurable rainfall on seven days. The heaviest rain was on 22/23 when there was 0.79", with some thunder also. Total for the month was 1.25". The total for the Fall (Sep, Oct, Nov) was 6.25". This was the wettest Fall period since I started my records in 1999.

Light Showers Yesterday

Showers along the foothills yesterday afternoon at 1:45 pm MST.

The ALERT network data show light amounts scattered around the network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Here at house light showers in afternoon produced only 0.01"; the airport had 0.03"; DM reported 0.01"; and Atmo noted 0.02".

There were no detected CG flashes anywhere in the Southwest or northern Mexico during past 24 hours.

Looking ahead: the GEFS 06 UTC plumes for the airport are flat-lined at zero through 00 UTC on 12 December.

Morning After Thanksgiving

More color this morning, November 28th, at 6:50 am MST.

Extensive, standing wave clouds downwind from the Rockies (below) at 7:00 am this morning.

Red Skies On Thanksgiving

 

Nice pre-sunrise color on Thanksgiving morning. Have a great holiday.

Heavy Rains Yesterday

View of clouds and showers over Catalinas at 3:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

There were numerous CG flashes detected over eastern Pima County and southeast Arizona for the 24-hours ending at 1033 UTC this morning (above plot from Atmo).

There were widespread heavy rain amounts across the ALERT Network (above and below) for the 24-hours ending 10:00 am this morning. We had 0.79" here; TUS had 0.78"; and DM had 0.83".

Quick Update

Gray and somewhat dreary skies over Tucson this morning - view above from 9:00 am MST. Showers during the day added 0.06" to the morning total here yesterday, giving us rainfall of 0.40".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) are very focused on tomorrow and tomorrow night. The POPs from same runs approach 100 percent tomorrow (below).

The current NWS morning forecast for the airport is shown in graphic at bottom.

Rainy Night And Morning

Catalinas obscured by rain and clouds at 8:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes shows that were thunderstorms in our area last evening around 10 pm or so. I certainly didn't hear any thunder though.

Reports of measurable rain came in from nearly all the ALERT sites for 24-hours ending at 10 am (above and below), with a number of sites reporting half an inch or more. Here at the house we had 0.34" through 10 am.

Unsettled Rest Of Week

View toward Rincons just before sunrise this morning.

GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate several periods of showers through the weekend. Note that the operational GFS is a strong outlier. Plumes for POPs at airport (below) indicated showers this early am which didn't materialize, and very high POPs tonight into tomorrow morning.

Current morning forecast (above) from NWS for the airport through Thursday, with highest POPs for tonight. The GFS long range forecast of total precipitation (below - through Sunday at 5:00 pm MST) indicates heavy amounts for much of Arizona.