Nighttime Showers

Heavy clouds on the Catalinas at 6:45 am MST this morning.

The 500 mb low that was west of southern California/northern Baja yesterday opened up during the night and moved to the Arizona/New Mexico border this morning (above).

Showers moved across the northeastern portion of the ALERT Network after midnight. Rain reports shown below, with a few sites recording over half an inch. The airport had no rainfall; DM reported 0.03", Atmo had 0.17"; and we had 0.26" in the gauge. Summerhaven had a couple of inches of wet snow.

Quick Update

High clouds over the Catalinas at 7:25 am MST this morning.

The NWS outlook for rainfall through 5:00 pm tomorrow (above) is similar to this morning's 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR (below). Current morning forecast for the airport (second below from the NWS Forecast Office) continues to indicate high POPs tonight and again Thursday night.

Rainy Week Ahead

View of Catalinas at 7:45 am MSTthis morning.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS are shown here. Those for QPF (above) indicate rainfall events for Tuesday and Thursday nights. Temperatures (below) are forecast to be quite chilly on Thursday night, continuing into the weekend. Forecast precipitation types are shown in the lower graphic. Models indicate a slight chance of some snow being mixed-in on Thursday night.

Bit More Rain After Dark

General Store view at Summerhaven at mid-morning yesterday.

Rainfall amounts last 24-hours ending at 7:00 a MST this morning. Rain was widespread but amounts were quite light. We had a total of 0.12" here, with some showers after dark and perhaps a small amount after midnight.

View of Catalinas below - a contrast in dark and bright - from campus at 4:35 pm yesterday.

Morning Showers

View of showers moving into this part of town at 9:00 am MST this morning.

Base scan radar below from the same time.

Dust And Snow

Blowing dust yesterday afternoon over southwest Texas. Dust clearly visible on the satellite image below, extending from New Mexico to east Texas. Strong wind gusts indicated on the 4:00 pm CST surface plot (second below).

As the dust plume moved over Dallas skies turned red - above.

The storm has moved northeastward and is now producing blizzard conditions over northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota - view below shows current conditions near Spencer, in northwest Iowa.

Quick Look Ahead

Freight train rumbles through snowy Flagstaff during lunch hour yesterday.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast (above) indicates a strong 500 mb closed-low moving into Arizona at 5:00 pm MST on Friday (above). The graphic below (from NWS this morning) shows their Forecast of precipitation valid for 5 am Thursday through 5 am Saturday. Note that last time we had a quarter of an inch of rain here at the house was in November last year.

Winter?

Mike Crimmins' plot for rainfall (https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/index.html) this current water year (Oct.1st to today) above shows how severe our current drought period is.

Here at the house during the just ended meteorolgical winter of Dec, Jan, and Feb we had measurable rain on only 2 days (January 29th - 0.13" and February 14th - 0.02" - total rain 0.15"). The driest winter here was in 2005/06 when there was only 0.04" of rain. This was followed by 0.15 this year and last, and then by 0.31 during 1999/00.

March Comes In With Wind

Some dust blowing in over the Catalinas a few minutes ago at about 11:20 am MST.

A strong, 500 mb closed low is forecast by 12 UTC GFS to be moving across Arizona at 5:00 PM this afternoon (above).

The passage of this system has led to a Red Flag Warning for most of southern Arizona (above); as well as wind and blowing dust advisories at the airport (below).

Will post a winter summary tomorrow.

Light Showers Around

Hazy skies at 7:30 am MST this morning.

Showers were scatterered around the metro area last night. Reports from MesoWest at Univ. of Utah (below) are for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am. We had only 0.02" here shortly after dark.

Quick Update Valentine's Day

View of the Catalinas at 9:00 am MST this morning.

GFS forecast of 500 mb pattern (above, valid at 06 UTC tonight) shows sharp trough moving across Arizona.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs show: all members forecasting measurable, but light, rainfall at the airport late this afternoon (above);  Cool temperatures for tomorrow (below); and windy conditions later today (second below).

The 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo (above) shows little precipitation over southern Arizona through 06 UTC tomorrow night. The current am forecast from the NWS (below) is more agressive - we'll watch how this plays out.

Showers Later This Week?

Cloud-obscured sunrise this morning.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate chances for light showers around Valentine's Day at end of the week. Amounts indicated are mostly very light.

Temperatures (above) cool a bit but remain mild. Plumes indicate windy conditions (below) tomorrow and again on Valentine's Day.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS (below) forecasts dry conditions across southern Arizona for the rest of the week. February continues rainless so far.

A Look At January

 
Snow cover in Summerhaven on morning of January 30th.

January was a very quiet weather month here. Noted in my weather log: a light sprinkle and east winds to 30 mph afternoon of the 8th; morning low of 22 F on the 12th; afternoon showers and 0.13" on afternoon of 29th. Total of 0.13" was a tie for 8th driest January since I started records in 1999.

Yesterday's high of 86 F tied the record set back in 1925.

It's Groundhog Day

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, so he's predicting six more weeks of winter. But, there's been very little winter here in Tucson so far.

Light Rain Here Yesterday

Light snow cover this morning up in Summerhaven.

ALERT precipitation amounts for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (above and below). Amounts were light and mostly occurred over northern 2/3rds of the network. Note that some higher elevation locations had only snow. Here at house there was 0.13" of rain yesterday afternoon - first measurable rain of 2025 here.

The large, 500 mb low is centered over northeastern New Mexico this morning,  with a sharp trough axis just east of Tucson.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for temperature (above) show dramatic warming into middle of next week. Longer tern GFS outlook (from 06 UTC run - below) indicates dry conditions over most of the Southwest through Valentine's Day.