Another Dry Day

 

The full, Hunters' moon rising near Redington Pass at 10:00 pm MST last evening.

IR image this moring from 6:12 am (above) shows clear skies across Arizona. The plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at a bit after midnight last night (below - from Atmo), indicates one isolated thunderstorm across all of Arizona, over the Chiricahuas. Yesterday was another day with no precipitation reported across the entire ALERT Network.

Map of forecast high temperatures for today, from the NWS Forecast Office (above) indicates 105 F for Tucson. Yesterday's high was 109 F and Wednesday's high was 113 F - tying the record high for the date.

The GEFS plumes for QPF from 06 UTC last night (above) continue to indicate chances for showers next week. The preciptation type plot (below) indicates POPs reaching 40 percent late in the week.

Mostly Dry

View of the Catalinas at 08:30 am MST this morning.

While July began with rain here on the 2nd and 3rd, it has been dry ever since, with not even a sprinkle.

Two sites in the ALERT network reported light rainfall during the 24-hours ending at 08:30 am (above). The plot of detected CG flashes (below, from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC (0203 am MST) shows no flashes in Pima County, and just scattered flashes in southeast Arizona - very quiet for July.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (below) indicate a chance for light showers beginning early next week.

Isolated Storms Yesterday

Storm off to the northeast of main metro area yesterday afternoon produced rain, some heavy, toward and across Redington Pass (above and below). Image above from campus at 5:00 pm MST and ALERT precipitation below for for 24-hours through 7:00 am this morning. Note that Sunday and Monday were completely suppressed with no rainfall anywhere across the ALERT Network.

Current morning forecast from NWS (above) highlights the Extreme Heat Warning that is effect today. Seven-day rainfall totals from the 06 UTC GFS forecast (below) keep Tucson area just along the northern edge of the heavy precipitation plume that extends across all of western Mexico.

Isolated Storms Yesterday

 

There were isolated storms and showers around yesterday afternoon. These occurred mainly over the Catalinas and Redington Pass area.

 There were also storms over the far southwest portion of the Alert network. See graphics above and below.

Very Suppressed On The Fourth

It was very quiet and suppressed yesterday - view above is from 5:00 pm MST on the Fourth.

Detected CG flashes (through 0853 UTC above - from Atmo) remained far to our south along the Borderlands. There was one report of 0.04" on the MesoWest precip site through 8:00 am this morning (below). Report could be valid since there was a decaying, weak radar echo in that area.

Current forevast for rest of weekend from the NWS is above. Note that every forecast period through the coming seven days has POPs of 20 to 40 percent. The rainfall forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo (below) keeps the precipitation through 6:00 pm tomorrow mostly south of the main metro area.

Heavy Storms On 3rd

Heavy storm over this part of the metro area at 2:20 pm CST yesterday afternoon.Widespread CG flash activity across eastern Pima County yesterday shown in graphic below for 24-hours ending at 0933 UTC (0233 am MST) - from Atmo site at Univ. of Arizona.

Rainfall across parts of MesoWest network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning (below). Here at the house the storm pictured above left 0.62" in my gauge. Note that heavy rain amounts occurred over a small area around here and just north of the Rillito.

Looks like much less activity today as per 06 UTC QPF plumes (above) and forecast from the WRF-HRRR run from 12 UTC this morning (below) valid through 10:00 pm tonight - from Atmo web site.

Scattered Showers Yesterday

Dark skies with some showers around yesterday afternoon at 2:00 pm.

MesoWest rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning. Amounts were generally light, although 5 sites (2 in Catalinas, 2 in Santa Cruz County, and 1 above had more than an inch). Here at the house we had a light, afternoon shower that left only 0.02" in the gauge. The airport reported 0.38" (and a gust to 47 mph); DM had 0.01"; and Atmo reported 0.03". There were widespread CG flashes detected across most Arizona (plot below shows CG flshes detected through 0803 UTC early this morning).

Plot of Total Precipitable Water (above for 13 UTC this morning) shows that high values had spread across much of Arizona. The remnants of Hurricane Flossie are southwest of Baja.

Plumes from the GEFS runs at 06 UTC (above for QPF and below for temperature - both at airport) show light showers around for much of the coming week. The temperature plumes show a gradual heat-up into the 100s F is on tap as we head deeper into July.

Current NWS forecast for today and Fourth of July is shown at bottom.

Chances For Showers And Storms

Isolated build-ups over the Catainas at 9:45 am MST this morning.

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for today - details above. They also have the Tucson area under a Blowing Dust Advisory - as per grahic below.    

Current morning forecast from the NWS Office is below, indicating high POPS for the airport today and tomorrow. Only 30 percent POPS on the Fourth of July.

The forecast below is from the 15 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR at Atmo - that model keeps the heavier rainfall mostly south of the Metro area.

Meanwhile, far to the south, Hurricane Flossie is weakening as it turns to the west-northwest over cooler waters. The storm briefly reached Cat 3 strength (96 to 112 kt/111 to 129 mph) during the early morning hours today. The storm has helped push moist air northward into southern Arizona, contributing to the high chances for rain here today and tomorrow.

Video of Haboob

 Pat Holbrook has a nice video of the haboob moving across

Tucson yesterday evening at:

https://discussions.weather.arizona.edu/

July 1st

Tropical Storm Flossie developed yesterday morning. The storm was declared to be a Hurricane at 9 pm CDT yesterday evening. IR image above is from 1330 UTC this morning. Track forecast at 6 am from the NHC is shown below. The storm is forecast to eventually dissipate west of southern Baja on Sunday.

Spring Summary

 

Yesterday was the summer solstice - the first day of astronomical summer and the longest day of the year.

Image above is from 4:35 pm MST on March 7th. Here is a brief summary of Spring (March, April, and May) here at the house. Precipitation occurred on only 6 days: 4 days in March totaled 0.59"; 1 day in April totaled 0.01"; and 1 day in May totaled 0.05", for a total of 0.65" during the Spring. I noted no thunderstorms here and no unusually strong winds. All-in-all it was a quiet Spring, that was the tenth driest since 2000.

Look Ahead

View of the Catalias at 7:25 am MST this morning.

At 500 mb (above) this morning a large anticyclone is centered over northern Sonora, Mexico. The GFS forecast however (below), valid at 06 UTC on 24 June indicates a strong trough over the western U.S.

As the trough moves across our area, the GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for showers at the airport from the 23rd on through the 27th.

The plumes for temperature (above) indicate a cooling trend, after hot days today and tomorrow. The plumes for wind speed (below) indicate windy conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but with lighter winds the rest of the coming week. So, it looks like there is some chance for the summer storm season to start before the end of June - something we'll keep an eye on.

Erick Strengthened Rapidly

 

An IR image from 14 UTC (above) shows Erick's cloud masses after it came ashore early this morning in southern Mexico. The storm had intensified rapidly, briefly reaching Cat. 4 strength (113 to 136 kts), before coming ashore as a Cat. 3 storm (96 to 112 kts). Current outlook from the NHC (below) indicates Erick will weaken rapidly, before dissipating tomorrow.