More Activity Than Expected

View toward the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.

The plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 0930 UTC) indicates more thunderstorm coverage yesterday than was expected (see previous post).

ALERT plot for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am (below) shows rainfall scattered across the network. Here at house we had thunder and brief shower in the early evening, with 0.02" in gauge this morning. The airport reported thunder and a Trace, as did DM, but Atmo had 0.14".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) continue to indicate a mostly quiet week ahead. The POPs from same runs are maximum today, approaching 40 percent at TUS, but also indicate a mostly quiet week. The current NWS forecast for the weekend at airport is at bottom.

Slight Chances For Showers

Clear skies over southeast Arizona at 9:30 am MST this morning.

Across the entire ALERT Network only three sites reported reported light amounts yesterday - above.

Plumes for QPF (above) from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS today indicate only slight chances for light showers through the coming seven days, The POPs for  rain at TUS (below, from same runs) show only slight chances for measurable rainfall.

The graphic above from NWS this morning shows chances for rain amounts of 0.10" or more for today. However, the morning forecast for the airport (below) seems out-of-sync with the graphic, since it indicates only 10 percent chance of 0.01" today.

Severe Storms

Storms moving moving into parts of metro area around 6:00 pm MST yesterday.

The storms eventually affected most of Arizona, with a large MCS over the southwestern part of the state at 6:00 am this morning.

There was rain across most of the ALERT Network yesterday evening (above) - Here at house we had 0.20"; TUS reported 0.29"; DM had 1.11"; and Atmo reported only 0.15". There were numerous reports of severe winds and hail across the Southwest (below). I estimated gusts of 40 to 50 mph here; TUS reported gusts to 63 mph; DM had 54 mph; and Atmo had gusts to 49 mph. 

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate a much quieter period ahead, as does the NWS morning forecast through Saturday (below).

Chance For Showers

View of the Rincons about 5:45 am this morning.

Plumes for QPF at TUS (above from 06 UTC runs) indicate an unsettled week ahead. The POPs for the airport (below) indicate best chances for showers will be tomorrow.

The NWS has issued a blowing dust advisory for our area today, expecting strong thunderstorm outflows to be near severe levels that will kick up dust over a large area of southeastern Arizona (above). The current morning forecast for the airport (below) also keeps the extreme heat warning in effect through the day Friday.

Heat Continues

View of the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST this morning.

There were isolated showers in the northern portion of the ALERT Network yesterday - above plot for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning. There was thunder and a sprinkle, with estimated east wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph, here after 5:00 pm. The airport reported thunder with gusts to 38 mph and no rainfall; while DM had thunder with gusts to 41 mph and a Trace.

GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate an active week beginning tomorrow evening. The POPs for TUS from same runs are shown below.

NWS extreme heat graphic this morning is shown at bottom.

Another Dry Day Here

View of the Rincons a bit before 6:00 am MST this morning.

Isolated reports of rain yesterday afternoon some parts of ALERT Network (above), generally avoiding the main metro area. However, TUS reported 0.19" and DM had a Trace, but nothing here or at Atmo.

 Current forecast from NWS (below) is calling for extreme heat first part of next week.

Showers Yesterday But Not Here

Dreary skies this morning at 8:30 am MST, with a few cumulus already over the Catalinas.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0203 am this morning (above) shows a Tucson donut hole. However, showers were observed across parts of the ALERT Network (below). It was dry here, but note the heavy amounts in the southern portion of the Network.

Plumes for QPF from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) indicate a quiet period until late next week. The current NWS forecast through the weekend is shown below.