Update

 

View of the Rincons around 6:30 am MST this morning.

There was no more rain yesterday after the morning post, so total for the event here was 0.27". This was the most rain since the 0.34" on January 23rd and 24th.

Lingering Showers

Heavy clouds over Tucson and the Catalinas at 8:00 am MST this morning. Image at bottom shows a snippet of a rainbow at 4:00 pm yesterday afternoon.

Considerable CG flashes with the storms yesterday late - plot of flashes above for 24-hurs ending at 0833 UTC early this morning (from Atmo). There were several crashes of thunder here around 4:00 pm.

Rain amounts of 0.04" or more occured at almost all of the ALERT sites during the 24-hours ending at 9:30 am this morning (above and below), with greatest amounts out west of here along the Interstate. We had 0.27" in the gauge this morning.

Radar base-scan from 9:30 am (above) indicates a few lingering showers over eastern Pima County. These are moving to the southwest, as the upper low is centered south of Tucson. Current forecast from the NWS (below) for the airport indicates a rapid warm-up after today's unsettled weather.

Showers Today and Tonight

Clear skies looking toward the Rincons a bit before 7 am MST this morning.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate showers late today, continuing through the night. Average amounts are around 0.30". 

Plumes for temperature (above) indicate a rapid cool down for tomorrow, followed by a rapid rebound to very warm temperatures. The GEFS POPs hit 100 percent during the night (below).

Current morning forecasts from the NWS (above and below) indicate POPs at the airport reaching 90 percent tonight. Last rainfall here at house was well over two weeks ago, so some rain would be much appreciated.

Chances For Showers By End Of Week

Pink clouds over the Catalinas at about a quarter to 7 am MST this morning.

The 06 GEFS plumes are shown here for the coming week. Plumes for QPF  (above) indicate increasing chances for showers by Sunday, continuing into next week. Last rainfall here at house was only 0.01" back on February 17th, so a fairly long dry spell continues for a few more days.

The POPs (above) peak at around 50 percent on next Monday. Temperatures are forecast to cool considerable after tomorrow (below). Strong and gusty winds are indicated for tomorrow however (second below).

Brief Summaries

 

Perfectly clear skies here in Tucson, a bit before 10:00 am MST on Tuesday, March 2nd.

Summary 2025: Total rainfall here at the house during 2025 was 10.14". This is a tie for the 7th driest year here, since 1999, with 2002. The driest year was 2020, with only 5.48". There was thunder here on at least 18 days - may have missed a few due to my poor hearing.

Summary for winter (December, January, and February) 2025/2026: Total winter rainfall (no snow here) was 1.90". This was the 9th driest winter since 1999. The driest winter here (2005/2006) saw only 0.04" of rain! I did not note any days with thunder during the past winter.

Hot Ending for February

 

Graphic from the NWS today warning of record heat as February draws to a close.

Blizzard In Northeast

View of I-95 in Boston a while ago, versus TUS outlook for the coming week here!