Fausto

Morning color over the Rincons a bit before 6:00 am MST this morning.

Tropical Storm Fausto developed yesterday evening - IR image above is from 1430 UTC this morning. Fausto is expected to become a hurricane this morning, but to move westward far southwest of Baja.

Mostly light rainfall was scattered around the ALERT Network during the 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above and below). It appears that we had a Trace here before sunrise.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above from the 06 UTC runs) indicate chance for showers tonight and then a mostly quiet week. Morning POPs for the airport shown below from same runs highlight chance for rain tonight, followed by low POPs rest of week. The current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport is shown at bottom.

Quiet Here

Storm over Catalinas at 1:00 pm MST this early afternoon.

Some reports were scattered around the ALERT network yesterday (above for 24-hours ending at 11:00 am this morning). We had no rain here - DM reported a Trace, and Atmo and airport had 0.08".

Plumes from the 12 UTC GEFS runs - above QPF and below POPs for rain at the airport (note the early morning rain stayed away from the main metro area). Current NWS forecast for the airport is at bottom.

Light Showers

Light showers were continuing at 7:00 am MST this morning.

Shower activity produced considerable coverage across the ALERT Network (above and below) for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. Here at the house we had 0.14"; TUS reported 0.07"; Atmo had 0.08" and DM had 1.04".

Plumes above (from 06 UTC runs of the GEFS) for TUS indicate renewed activity later part of coming 7 days. POPs for the airport gradually recover to near or above climo for July. The current NWS forecast for the airport is at bottom.

Storms Yesterday Evening

Storms over the Catalinas at 5:40 pm yesterday afternoon.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo above through 0933 UTC this morning) shows scattered to isolated flashes across southeast Arizona.

ALERT plots (above and below) show fairly widespread activity across the Network, with highest amounts over Catalinas and southwest of metro area. Here at house we had thunder and showers after about 5:30 pm with 0.21" in gauge this morning. Atmo had 0.19"; TUS reported 0.09"; while DM reported only 0.02".

Plumes above from 06 UTC GEFS runs indicate a quiet week, with light rain amounts at the airport. Current morning forecast from the NWS Office for airport shown below.

Flash Flood Watch

Late post today. View of storm over the Catalinas at 2:00 pm MST this afternoon.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 1413 UTC this afternoon) shows a classic Tucson donut hole.

Rainfall across the ALERT Network yesterday (above and below) affected the northern and southern portions, mostly avoiding the metro area. However, here at the house we had a brief shower a bit after 7:00 pm that left 0.15" in the gauge.

There is a Flash Flood Watch in place for all of southeastern Arizona, as per above graphic from the NWS Forecast Office. Current forecast for the airport is shown below.

T. S. Elida

 

Tropical Storm Elida developed early yesterday far southwest of Baja. Image above is IR from 1620 UTC this morning. Current forecast from NHC (below) keeps the storm/hurricane far offshore during it's entire life.

Down Day Here

View of Catalinas at 7:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows a quiet day across most of Pima County. ALERT data (below) through 0833 UTC (0133 am) show only a few sites with rainfall - one site over an inch in Catalinas. Here at the house we had nothing, as per Atmo, TUS, and DM.

Plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate a significant rain event tomorrow. POPs from the same runs (below) reach over 80 percent tomorrow evening. Current NWS forecast through Saturday (bottom) indicates high chances for storms through Saturday.

More Rain Here

Nice color looking toward the Rincons about 5:00 am MST this morning.

Some CG flashes across eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon. There were two reports of severe wind gusts in southeast Arizona yesterday afternoon - gusts to 59 mph near Marana and gusts to 62 mph near Bisbee. I didn't get an estimate made here, and I'm not sure whether there was thunder here.

Another day with widespread rain observed across the ALERT Network (above and below). We did have brief, heavy showers around 5 pm here, with 0.29" in the gauge this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes from the GEFS runs for QPF at the airport (above) start out slow, but ramp things up Thursday night into Friday. The airport POPs from same runs below reach over 60 percent on Thursday night. Current NWS forecast for the airport reaches up to 90 percent on Friday (bottom).