Tropical Storm Marie Develops

View of very heavy rain that is obscuring almost everything except a bit of campus at 11:15 am MST yesterday morning.

Rainfall reports across the ALERT Network for the 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning. We had a total amount here of 1.30" for the event; the airport had 0.62"; and DM reported 1.01". The observations from Atmo appear suspect with, a very low total of only 0.16".

The GEFS plumes for QPF (above, from the 06 UTC runs) indicate an active week for the next three days. The POPs for TUS (below) are also high next several days.

Tropical Storm Marie developed far south of Baja early this morning. The IR image above from 1430 UTC shows Marie (right) and Cat 4 Hurricane Karina far to the west. The current NHC forecast for Marie (below) keeps the storm far offshore, as it becomes a hurricane. The forecast track keeps Marie far southwest of Baja, and it is not clear what, if any, impact the storm will have on the Southwest US.

Heavy Rain Event

Bit of a lightning flash over western Catalinas at about 5:30 am MST this early morning. Image at bottom shows heavy rain showers along the foothills about 5:15 am.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (above) shows the early morning lightning occurred mostly west of main metro area. However, vivid flashes and thunder were active here before sunrise.

Rainfall occurred mostly over northern portions of the ALERT Network (above plot for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am). We had 0.74" (mostly from 4 to 6 am); TUS had 0.37"; DM reported 0.29"; and Atmo noted only 0.06". Note there were four sites with more than an inch.

Current morning forecast for the airport (above); while below shows the QPF forecast for today from the Weather Prediction Center at NCEP.

Continued Dry Here

Late post today - above view of Catalinas and cumulus at 12:45 pm MST today.

Only scattered clumps of rainfall around the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 11:00 am today (above). We had a very slight sprinkle and perhaps a rumble of thunder here around 5:00 pm, but nothing in the gauge.

Plumes for QPF from 12 UTC GEFS runs above. The POPs for TUS (below) from same runs remain high for today and tomorrow.

Chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening above - note TUS stands at 53 percent. Current afternoon forecast for the airport - below.

Update Re Thursday

I did not check the severe reports for last Thursday and missed some significant events in the Tucson area. There were nine reports of wind damage in the Tucson area during the evening, including a wind gust to 64 at the airport. 

Isolated Showers

Pre-sunrise view looking toward Rincons and Redington Pass.

A few reports of rainfall were scattered around the ALERT network during 24-hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning (below).

Plumes from 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF (above) indicate a significant event  this weekend. The plumes for wind (below) are quite strong for  this weekend, especially in the GFS runs (blue).

The POPs for the airport are very high for the airport through Monday (above). The graphic below shows chances for rain amounts of an inch or more for today (Tucson is hard to read, but it's at 20 percent). Current morning forecast for the airport (bottom) shows high POPs and a flash flood watch through Monday. Still waiting for rain in the gauge here!

Still Dry Here

View at 6:00 am MST this morning looking toward the Rincons and Redington Pass.

Some ALERT sites had rain yesterday afternoon, but nothing here except a bit of thunder.

POPs for TUS from the GEFS 06 UTC runs (above) and current morning forecast for TUS (below), indicating a wet weekend here.

Continued Dry

View of the Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning, with isolated clouds.

Yesterday was again mostly suppressed, but there were a couple of isolated storms. The ALERT data indicated rain at two sites: .08" at Keystone Peak west of Green Valley, and .04" at Mt. Lemmon. Dry spell has reached 6 days here at the house.

The 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF (above) indicate a rainy period beginning this evening and continuing into early next week.

The GFS (blue - above) is an outlier for strong winds next couple of days. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) have high values for next five evenings.

Graphic above from NWS shows chances for thunderstorms today (bit hard to read but shows 22% for Tucson). The 06 UTC NBM predicted total precipitation for next five days is shown below, also indicating a significant rainy period for our area.

Another Down Day

View of the Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above) for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC this morning shows almost no thunderstorm activity across all of Arizona - very suppressed across southeast Arizona. No precip reported across the ALERT Network yesterday.

Plumes for QPF at TUS (above, from 06 UTC runs) indicate a wet weekend on the horizon. Plumes from same runs (below) indicate several windy days on tap, with very high POPs for the weekend (second below).

Seven day precipitation forecast (from the 06 UTC GFS - below) indicates heavy rains for much of Arizona.