Chances For Showers

View of the Catalinas from campus at 7:00 am MST this morning.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF (above) and POPs at the airport (below) indicate chances for light showers tomorrow and again early next week. The POPs reach nearly 80 percent tomorrow.

The NBM  forecast of total precipitation through 5:00 pm Sunday afternoon (above) calls for light amounts across all of Arizona. Current NWS forecast for the airport through Saturday (below) calls for 30 percent POPs tomorrow afternoon.

Fifty One Years Ago

Fifty one years ago the iron ore carrier ship, The Edmund Fitzgerald, sank in a Lake Superior storm, taking all her crew of 29 to their deaths. The huge ship is shown in photo below. The wreck was memorialized in the famous ballad by Canadian singer Gordon Lightfoot.

Heavy Rain Yesterday

Heavy downpour at 1022 am yesterday morning, as viewed from campus. Event's radar perspective below, also at 1022 am MST.

Widespread amounts of an inch or more across much of ALERT Network (above - at 730 am), note the very heavy totals north part of Catalinas. Here at the house there was 1.52" in the gauge this morning, greatest single day rainfall this year.

Current forecast from NWS (below) indicates an extended period of mild and fair weather.

Halloween Washout

Catalinas at 8:00 am MST this morning with very light showers.

All sites in the ALERT network had rain during 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. No trick or treaters here, as it was raining steadily all evening. There was 0.64" here yesterday and about 0.05" early this first morning of November.

Currently there is a line of heavy showers approaching from the west - image above is from 9:30 am at the second tilt level. Amounts and POPs from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (1st and 2nd images below) are high today and tonight. Most of coming week is forecast to be quiet though.

Current morning forecast for the airport, with Flood Watch, is shown below.

Halloween Dawns Wet

Rain showers along the Catalinas just before 7:00 am MST this morning.

ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Amount in gauge here is almost 0.75", but that includes yesterday's events plus the early morning addition.

Plumes (from 06 UTC GEFS runs - above - indicate big event this weekend, focussed on tomorrow.

Dramatic temperature drops Sunday and Monday (above). High POPs late today into Monday (below). Current forecast from the NWS is at the bottom.

Rainy Morning

Rain this part of town - view is from 8:50 am MST.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 8:45 am this morning. Here at house there was 0.47" in the gauge at 7:00 am - is raining again here.

Plot above shows QPF for the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs - model continues to indicate a significant event today and this weekend. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) show right at 100 percent for two periods. Current NWS forecast for the airport shown at bottom.

Rainy Outlook

View of Catalinas at 11:00 am MST this morning, showing high clouds and slightly dirty air.

Current NWS graphic from NWS for the weekend. The color scheme doesn't seem to quite match the legend on the right.

Plumes for QPF at the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, indicating significant rains late tomorrow through Sunday. The plumes for temperature (below) indicate a dramatic cool-down Sunday and Monday.

POPs for the airport (below) are very high for tomorrow and Sunday.

The NBM 12 UTC run above shows total precipitation through 12 UTC on Monday, with much of Arizona forecast to have heavy amounts. Current am forecast for the airport through the weekend is shown below, with a flood watch late Saturday and Sunday.