Saturday, April 10, 2021

Today - Southwest Versus Southeast

Fair skies continue this morning, with a bit of haze. The GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (below from the 06 UTC runs) continue to show us essentially flat-lined through next weekend. Note that last significant rain here was nearly a month ago (13 March).

Since the Masters golf tournament is underway, I'll take a look at the Southeast's weather situation today. Image at bottom shows the azaleas in full bloom for this 2021 event, as opposed to last Fall's delayed 2020 outing, when the scenery was not nearly so spectacular.

The IR satellite image above is from 14 UTC this morning (10:00 am Augusta time) - the last group of players tees off today at 2:20 pm in Augusta. A large area of storms along the Gulf Coast is moving toward Georgia, and weather may become a factor in today's tournament. The 13 UTC outlook from SPC (below) keeps the main chance for severe thunderstorms to the south of Augusta, but there is a huge area of the east with an outlook for marginal chances for severe thunderstorms.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at Augusta (above) indicate a 100% chance for measurable rain this afternoon, with the average amount forecast being around half an inch, or a bit less. The Official NWS forecast for Augusta this afternoon is a 60% chance for measurable rain. The NAM forecast below (of radar echoes) is valid at 3:00 pm Augusta time this afternoon. The models forecast that storms could significantly impact the play of today's round of the tournament - it will be on CBS for those interested in watching.

Tuesday, April 06, 2021

NWS Forecast For Loveland


Above is forecast from Denver/Boulder NWS forecast office for Loveland, Colorado, which I found about an hour or so ago. I guess that I can only ask: "What are they smoking today in that office??"

Heavy Clouds At Sunrise

Heavy, high cloud cover at sunrise today, making a bit of a dreary start to the day. Down at bottom are two more images: first the unwrapped, all-sky cam at the Mt. Lemmon Sky Center, and second a view of I-10 looking west at the Dragoon exit (east of Benson near Texas Canyon). Some sunshine was breaking through out east, but also visible were the heavy clouds to the west. The IR image below (from 13 UTC) shows the southern half of Arizona affected by a large area of cloudiness coming off the Pacific.

Morning forecast from the NWS for the airport (above) indicates gusty winds again today - most of southeast Arizona remains under a Red Flag Warning for dangerous, wild fire conditions. The wind forecast below (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS) shows the strongest winds shifting into Cochise County and southwestern New Mexico.

Our dry period continues into mid-April - forecast below is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm MST on April 13th (from the 000 UTC WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid). All of the Southwest is forecast to remain dry through this period. 

Monday, April 05, 2021

Continued Dry

Just a bit of color at sunrise - air over Tucson metro is noticeably dirty this morning. The high at the airport yesterday reached 96 F, and I had to run the air conditioning here for a couple of hours. This was a record high for the airport, breaking the old record of 94 F.

Statement above from John Glueck on the NWS webpage noting that last 12 months have been the driest in Tucson's record, which goes back to 1900. Here along the Rillito we've been wetter than airport, but still very dry. Last 12 months here produced only 4.37 inches of rain, which is far below our 20 year average of about 12 inches.

Forecast QPF plumes at airport (above - from the 06 UTC GEFS) remain flat-lined through mid-month.
But several days are forecast to be quite windy this week as per above from same GEFS run. Forecast winds below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) are valid at 5:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon.

Friday, April 02, 2021

Warm And Windy Yesterday

Nice sunrise colors for Tucson again today. Was hot and windy yesterday, with TUS recording a high of 90 F and a long period of wind gusts of 30 mph and higher (8:00 am MST through 5:00 pm).

Wind speeds with gusts time series for U of A above and airport below. The U of A readings are obviously taken at a sheltered site compared to the well-exposed site at the airport. Max gust at airport was 39 mph, compared to only 23 mph at the university.  There is really no good site for the anemometer on campus. It used to be located up on the roof of Atmo, but that led to speeds that were high relative to airport.

Morning radar from Flagstaff (above) indicates showers along the Rim Country. View of Prescott's Courthouse square (below) shows wet pavement from an early shower just before 6:00 am.

Thursday, April 01, 2021

March Summary/Start Of April

Contrails over the Catalinas this morning - note dirty air, with dust from the east already over the metro area. Colorful sunrises at Silver City, New Mexico, and Teton Pass, Wyoming, are shown down at bottom.

Quick summary for March here at house: 4 days with measurable rainfall, all 0.05" and less, except for 0.66" night of 12th into early morning of 13th - total rain here was 0.75". Two mornings had lows below freezing ( 24 F on 1st and 30 F on 17th), and there were 10 mornings with lows in the 30s.

Morning forecast from NWS above - red flag warning is out for all of the NWS TUS forecast area today. Detailed forecast indicates that winds could gust as high as 44 mph today at the airport - in my book that is windy, not "breezy". The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for winds seem to be off kilter for this morning, with winds too light (below).

Forecast steady wind speed above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS indicates strong winds for southeast portions of Arizona, with 30 mph at the airport at 8:00 am MST this morning.

The plumes for temperature (below from same run) forecast a warm weekend, into early next week. Temperatures may flirt with 100 F here Sunday and Monday, with no April showers in sight.

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Hot And Windy

Cloudless skies again this morning over the Catalinas. Below planes (at Lax), bottom train (at Flagstaff), and automobiles (on I-10) north of Tucson.

Forecasts here from 06 UTC WRF-GFS for temperatures at 4:00 pm MST tomorrow on April 1st, and winds at 10:00 am tomorrow morning. Note the hot and windy conditions over most of the lower elevations of Arizona. Appears that the desert southwest of Phoenix may see temperatures over 100 F.

GEFS winds for TUS from the 06 UTC run (above) and precipitation amounts (hardly any) over Arizona through  noon Monday, April 5th (from the 06 UTC WRF run).

Gusty winds tomorrow and again during mid-week next week.

Monday, March 29, 2021

Winds And Fire Hazards

Images here with a few more views of what's now a near-full, but waning moon. Above is unwrapped view from the Mt. Lemmon SkyCenter - moon is peeking out from behind tree just a bit south of west. Below is a lonesome highway view near Lusk, Wyoming (Lusk is in eastern Wyoming - north of Cheyenne and west of Chadron, Nebraska). Down at bottom are views from Denver and the South Pole.

Morning hazards map from the NWS (above) indicates widespread hazards and alerts related to strong winds - don't think I remember seeing such widespread threats related to gusty winds - legend below.

Below shows 06 UTC GEFS plumes for wind speeds at TUS during coming week, with a number of days indicated to have fairly strong, steady wind speeds.