Dry Here

Heavy cloud cover over our area at 6:45 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1403 UTC (0703 am) this morning shows that thunderstorms mostly avoided our area. However, the ALERT data ending at 7:00 am (below) shows rainfall scattered around the area, but again mostly avoiding the Tucson metro area. TUS and DM reported a Trace of rain, but there was none here or at Atmo.

Graphic from NWS this morning (above) shows chances for rain tonight. The current morning forecast for the airport through Friday is shown below.

Thunder Here Yesterday Evening

Nice color over the Rincons at 5:40 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above) indicates that the activity was scattered around the network yesterday afternoon. As confirmed by reports from the ALERT Network (below) for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning. We had thunder here around 7:00 pm but only a Trace of rain. DM AFB reported thunder and a Trace, but with a severe gust to 59 mph; Tucson had thunder but no rain; and Atmo reported 0.03" of rain, probably with thunder.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate a significant rain event beginning this evening. The POPs from same runs for TUS (below) are very high this evening and tomorrow evening.

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Current NWS forecast (below) for the airport continues the Flash Flood Watch and indicates highest POPs for rain tomorrow night.

More Storms

Heavy storm coming off Catalinas at 530 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

There were scattered reports of rain around the ALERT network yesterday (below). We had thunder and 0.01" here, as did TUS. A trace was reported by DM and Atmo had no rain.

Graphics from the NWS (above and below) re thunderstorms today and a Flash Flood Watch.

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) indicate an active several days this week. The POPs for TUS (from same runs - below) are running 70 to 50 percent for next 4 days.

Forecast for total rainfall through 12 UTC on Thursday is shown below from the 12 UTC runs of NBM.

Fire On Catalinas

View around midnight last night shows a CG flash northwest of Catalinas and wildfire burning near Finger Rock. Fire was out before dawn apparently.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows line of flashes extending eastward onto the mountains where fire occurred. Plot of ALERT data at 10:00 am MST (below) shows rainfall stayed mainly on mountains and Redington Pass area.

There were three reports of severe wind gusts yesterday: Gusts to 73 and 61 mph near Safford, and gusts to 61 mph near Morenci (added at 11:30 am Saturday).

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate an active evening next Monday, with one member being a wild, heavy outlier. The airport POPs from same runs (below) reach almost 90 percent Monday evening.

The current NWS forecast for the airport is shown at bottom.

Corrections

 

I have been referring to the NWS NBM as "National Best Model" - this is not correct; the output forecasts are from the National Blend of Models. Description of the blend is above, with links to more details.

I also neglected to report that were 18 severe wind reports in southeast Arizona on August 5th, with several of these in the greater Tucson area.

Quiet Day

Color toward the Rincons about 5:30 am MST this morning.

The day yesterday was mostly quiet, as per lack of any reports across the entire ALERT Network (above - for 24-hours ending at 11:00 am this morning).

Current NBM (National Best Model) forecast for rainfall through 12 UTC tomorrow morning. This morning's NWS forecast for airport through weekend is shown below.

Finally Some Rain

Bright CG flash over eastern foothills a bit before midnight last night.

There was widespread rainfall during 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC this morning across southern 2/3rds of ALERT network (above). This is consistent with the active CG flashes detected across southern portions of Pima County through 0903 UTC (below, from Atmo). Note the very heavy amounts southwest of the airport, and the many amounts over half an inch. Here at the house we had 0.17", while TUS reported thunder with gusts to 44 mph and 0.37"; DM had thunder and gusts to 48 mph with 0.16"; and Atmo reported 0.08".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a mostly quite week, with perhaps some shower activity early next week. The GEFS POPs from same runs (below) indicate POPs at airport of 30 to 60 percent at airport through entire coming seven days. The morning forecast from NWS through Saturday for airport is shown at bottom.

Very Quiet Day Yesterday

View of the Grand Canyon at 10:00 am MST this morning, from Grand Canyon Village.

Despite the active forecasts for yesterday afternoon and evening (see previous post), it turned out to be very quiet. The ALERT chart for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am (above) shows only one meagre report from east edge of network. 

Plumes for QPF today (above - from 06 UTC GEFS runs) again indicate an active afternoon and evening. The TUS POPs from same runs are very high today and the drop but gradually increase toward end of coming week. Current NWS morning forecast for the airport is at bottom, indicating only 40 percent chances this evening.