Hurricane Polo

IR view of Category 5 (140 kt) Hurricane Polo at 1405 UTC this morning off the southwest coast of Mexico.

Forecasts of Polo's possible tracks above, from the GEFS runs at 06 UTC this morning. Once Polo crosses GoC, its remnants are forecast to cross northern Sonora just southeast of Tucson. The offical morning track forecast from NHC is shown below. Should be an interesting few days next week, assuming the forecasts are reasonably accurate.

Quick Look Today

Heavy overcast this morning shown in 8:00 am MST view of Catalinas.

Only rain reported within the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am occurred in the far southwest corner of the array (above).

Plumes for rainfall at TUS (above - from SPC) indicate chances for light showers today. The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) indicates POPs of 30 percent today and tonight. No rain here at the house for over a week now.

Chance For Showers

View of the Catalinas at a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning.

Yesterday was another very quiet day across Arizona. Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC (0203 am) from Atmo (above) shows only a couple of flashes along the New Mexico border in Cochise County. Another day with no rain here at the house. However, today's forecast for the airport (below) indicates fairly good POPs for rain through Thursday.

Note that today is the first day of astronomical Fall, however, I track Fall as Sep, Oct, and Nov.

Meanwhile, to our south, Polo has rapidly intensified  into a hurricane and is now rated Category 5 at 145 kts - a very spectacular change since yesterday's post. The forecast track for Polo - below from NHC - indicates the storm moving to southwest of Baja by Sunday morning - if this track verifies, the storm should trigger a significant GoC surge of moisture into southern Arizona.

Eastern Pacific Active

View looking toward the Rincons at 5:50 am MST this morning.

While the eastern Pacific is active (see below), things have been very quiet across the Southwest. There was no rainfall reported across the ALERT Network yesterday, and no rain here at house since the 16th. The plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC (0103 am) - above from Atmo - indicates a couple of isolated flashes around the south end of the Rincons yesterday afternoon. I checked radar and there was a brief, isolated echo in that area.

Plumes for QPF from 09 UTC runs at SPC (above) indicate activity picking up tomorrow for a couple of days. The current morning forecast for the airport (below) keeps things pretty low key through Wednesday.

An IR image from the eastern Pacific at 14 UTC (below) shows newly formed TS Polo near the southern Coast of Mexico. Storm with large, very cold, cloud shield to the west is Odalys, which remains a TS. The forecast track for Polo is shown below. After a loop to the south the forecast indicates strengthening into a moderate hurricane, as it tracks northeastward. If the forecast proves accurate the storm should trigger a strong surge of moisture into the Southwest late Saturday into Monday. We will keep a close watch on how this storm actually evolves.

Significant Rain Event

Storms along the foothills around 5:40 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning show almost complete coverage, with numerous sites over an inch. Note the report over three inches at northwest corner of the network! Here at house we had thunder with gusty winds of 40 mph or so and 0.64" of rain. The rain fell off and on from before 6:00 pm into the early morning hours of today.

The 12 UTC runs of NBM indicate activity for the coming week staying to our east (below).

Dreary Morning

View of the Catalinas at 8:45 am MST this morning shows it to be a somewhat dreary morning,

Yesterday was quite suppressed, with only two ALERT sites reporting 0.04" - above. Was a dry day here at the house yesterday.

Hazards map from SPC for today (above) shows very large areas under Flash Flood Watches and also Heat Advisories.

The plumes for TUS QPF (above from SPC at 09 UTC) continue to show activity for the airport, especially today. The current forecast for the airport is shown below.

Numerous Showers Yesterday

Showers moving into foothills at 6:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Rains were widespread across the ALERT Network (above) with many reports above half an inch. There are also two sites with more than two inches. Here at house we only had 0.10". There were two severe wind reports near the airport, with a gust to 68 mph and a pole down.

Current NWS morning forecast for airport (below) keeps high POPs today and tomorrow (below).

Increasing Chances For Showers

View of Cbs along north slopes of the Catalinas at 3:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Below are the ALERT Network reports for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning, Fourteen sites reported 0.04", while a site near Tubac had 0.12". Again, there was nothing here at the house.

The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for today (above). POPs for the airport are high through Wednesday (below).