Super Typhoon Surigae

 

Super Typhoon Surigae, in the far west Pacific, is forecast to turn to the north, just brushing the Philippines. Above is IR image of the storm from 12 UTC and below is visible image from 1730 UTC. At bottom is 15 UTC forecast for the storm from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii. At 15 UTC the storm was indicated to have winds of 155 kt (178 mph) with gusts to 190 kt (219 mph) - a very powerful storm that would rate as a strong Cat 5 hurricane in our part of the globe.

Miscellany

 

April  snow this morning: Colorado Front Range above and Vermont below.

The Santa Fe Super Chief (east-bound and about 2 hours late) pulls into Flagstaff and passengers scramble to board. West-bound train of Hunt Intermodals was passing behind the Super Chief.

April 15th

Views of the Catalinas and San Francisco Peaks from campus and from Flagstaff - above and at bottom - from around 6:00 am MST. Some nice color but only a bit of cloudiness, as our rain-free April continues.

In my 20 years of record here for April, the wettest was in 2001 with 1.69" and there have been 5 years with no April rainfall. Average here for those 20 years has been only 0.30".

Plumes above (from the 06 UTC GEFS runs) are for rainfall at the airport. The models are holding out a bit of hope for light showers next Sunday night. The GFS forecast from 06 UTC below keeps rain through the end of the month north and east of Tucson. Not much to write about weather-wise for our local area. Hope we don't have to wait until July before we get a bit of rain here.

Dry, Warm, And Windy

View from campus of the Catalinas this morning shows a bit of cloud far to the north, with hazy air over the north part of the city. Image at bottom is sunrise as viewed from Sahuarita, south of Tucson.

Our last significant rain occurred a month ago today, when 0.67 inches fell here at the house

At 500 mb this morning (12 UTC analysis above from SPC) most of the country is dominated by a large trough that includes closed circulations over the Northwest and over northern Minnesota. The morning sounding here at TWC (below, also from SPC) is very dry (PW of 0.41 inches), with the winds missing above 400 mb, due to problems of some sort.

Shown here are the 06 UTC GEFS plumes for T (above) and winds below. To provide some perspective to these model values, note that: the NWS forecast high temperatures for today, tomorrow, and Thursday are: 88, 87, and 84 F, indicating the low bias in the GEFS highs; NWS wind speeds are similar to the GEFS values, but with gusts forecast as high as 30, 30, and 34 MPH for the same three days.

Most important question now is whether we'll have any chances for rain before we head into May and June (typically our two hottest and driest months).

Today - Southwest Versus Southeast

Fair skies continue this morning, with a bit of haze. The GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (below from the 06 UTC runs) continue to show us essentially flat-lined through next weekend. Note that last significant rain here was nearly a month ago (13 March).

Since the Masters golf tournament is underway, I'll take a look at the Southeast's weather situation today. Image at bottom shows the azaleas in full bloom for this 2021 event, as opposed to last Fall's delayed 2020 outing, when the scenery was not nearly so spectacular.

The IR satellite image above is from 14 UTC this morning (10:00 am Augusta time) - the last group of players tees off today at 2:20 pm in Augusta. A large area of storms along the Gulf Coast is moving toward Georgia, and weather may become a factor in today's tournament. The 13 UTC outlook from SPC (below) keeps the main chance for severe thunderstorms to the south of Augusta, but there is a huge area of the east with an outlook for marginal chances for severe thunderstorms.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at Augusta (above) indicate a 100% chance for measurable rain this afternoon, with the average amount forecast being around half an inch, or a bit less. The Official NWS forecast for Augusta this afternoon is a 60% chance for measurable rain. The NAM forecast below (of radar echoes) is valid at 3:00 pm Augusta time this afternoon. The models forecast that storms could significantly impact the play of today's round of the tournament - it will be on CBS for those interested in watching.

NWS Forecast For Loveland

 

Above is forecast from Denver/Boulder NWS forecast office for Loveland, Colorado, which I found about an hour or so ago. I guess that I can only ask: "What are they smoking today in that office??"

Heavy Clouds At Sunrise

Heavy, high cloud cover at sunrise today, making a bit of a dreary start to the day. Down at bottom are two more images: first the unwrapped, all-sky cam at the Mt. Lemmon Sky Center, and second a view of I-10 looking west at the Dragoon exit (east of Benson near Texas Canyon). Some sunshine was breaking through out east, but also visible were the heavy clouds to the west. The IR image below (from 13 UTC) shows the southern half of Arizona affected by a large area of cloudiness coming off the Pacific.

Morning forecast from the NWS for the airport (above) indicates gusty winds again today - most of southeast Arizona remains under a Red Flag Warning for dangerous, wild fire conditions. The wind forecast below (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS) shows the strongest winds shifting into Cochise County and southwestern New Mexico.

Our dry period continues into mid-April - forecast below is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm MST on April 13th (from the 000 UTC WRF-GFS on the 5.4 km grid). All of the Southwest is forecast to remain dry through this period. 

Continued Dry

Just a bit of color at sunrise - air over Tucson metro is noticeably dirty this morning. The high at the airport yesterday reached 96 F, and I had to run the air conditioning here for a couple of hours. This was a record high for the airport, breaking the old record of 94 F.

Statement above from John Glueck on the NWS webpage noting that last 12 months have been the driest in Tucson's record, which goes back to 1900. Here along the Rillito we've been wetter than airport, but still very dry. Last 12 months here produced only 4.37 inches of rain, which is far below our 20 year average of about 12 inches.

Forecast QPF plumes at airport (above - from the 06 UTC GEFS) remain flat-lined through mid-month.

But several days are forecast to be quite windy this week as per above from same GEFS run. Forecast winds below (from 06 UTC WRF-GFS) are valid at 5:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon.