Still Dry Here

View at 6:00 am MST this morning looking toward the Rincons and Redington Pass.

Some ALERT sites had rain yesterday afternoon, but nothing here except a bit of thunder.

POPs for TUS from the GEFS 06 UTC runs (above) and current morning forecast for TUS (below), indicating a wet weekend here.

Continued Dry

View of the Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning, with isolated clouds.

Yesterday was again mostly suppressed, but there were a couple of isolated storms. The ALERT data indicated rain at two sites: .08" at Keystone Peak west of Green Valley, and .04" at Mt. Lemmon. Dry spell has reached 6 days here at the house.

The 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF (above) indicate a rainy period beginning this evening and continuing into early next week.

The GFS (blue - above) is an outlier for strong winds next couple of days. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) have high values for next five evenings.

Graphic above from NWS shows chances for thunderstorms today (bit hard to read but shows 22% for Tucson). The 06 UTC NBM predicted total precipitation for next five days is shown below, also indicating a significant rainy period for our area.

Another Down Day

View of the Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above) for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC this morning shows almost no thunderstorm activity across all of Arizona - very suppressed across southeast Arizona. No precip reported across the ALERT Network yesterday.

Plumes for QPF at TUS (above, from 06 UTC runs) indicate a wet weekend on the horizon. Plumes from same runs (below) indicate several windy days on tap, with very high POPs for the weekend (second below).

Seven day precipitation forecast (from the 06 UTC GFS - below) indicates heavy rains for much of Arizona.

Very Suppressed

Clear skies over our region this morning.

Yesterday was very suppressed with clear skies prevailing and no rainfall - as per ALERT data below, ending at 9:00 am MST.

TS Eselle

I have neglected to mention TS Iselle, which developed yesterday morning in the eastern Pacific. An IR image (above) shows Iselle this afternoon at 2120 UTC, disturbance 10E is to her south-southwest. Iselle is expected to become a hurricane soon (below) and to track westward away from the Mexican coast.

Showers And Gusty Winds

Early morning view of the Catalinas at 6 am this morning.

Showers were scattered around the ALERT area yesterday afternoon (above), again exceeding expectations a bit. They were accompanied by gusty surface winds, and several reports of severe wind gusts in Tucson area and also Pinal County. Here at house we had thunder and gusts I estimated at 40 to 50 mph, but only a brief Trace of rain. The airport reported thunder with gusts to 44 mph and 0.30" of rain; DM had thunder and 0.05" with gusts to 39; and Atmo had gusts to 30 mph and no rain.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate a quiet week until Friday or so, when chances for showers increase.

Emphasis in the NWS products this morning is on the hot week ahead - see chart above that shows the forecasts and records for locations in southeast Arizona. Current NWS forecast for TUS is shown below through Wednesday.

Colorful Sunrise

Golden skies this morning looking toward the Rincons from campus at 5:30 am MST.

Isolated reports of rainfall across parts of the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. Quite dry here again.

The GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate only slight chances of mostly light showers at the airport through the coming week. The POPs (below) at the airport are also mostly low until next weekend.

More Activity Than Expected

View toward the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.

The plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 0930 UTC) indicates more thunderstorm coverage yesterday than was expected (see previous post).

ALERT plot for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am (below) shows rainfall scattered across the network. Here at house we had thunder and brief shower in the early evening, with 0.02" in gauge this morning. The airport reported thunder and a Trace, as did DM, but Atmo had 0.14".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) continue to indicate a mostly quiet week ahead. The POPs from same runs are maximum today, approaching 40 percent at TUS, but also indicate a mostly quiet week. The current NWS forecast for the weekend at airport is at bottom.