June Summary

View of the Catalinas at about 9:30 am MST this morning showing perfectly clear skies.

June ended with measurable rainfall here on 3 days, with most rain falling on the 15th and 17th - 0.19" and 0.38". This was somewhat unusual with the middle of the month being active. Total  for month was 0.61" with thunder here at house on two days. This was the fifth wettest June since 1999, when I started my records.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate indicate increasing chances for rain after the 6th of July. The GEFS POPs at airport (below) reach to almost 30 percent on the 8th next week.

Far to the southwest, TS Douglas developed late yesterday. Current NHC track forecast above indicates Douglas will remain a TS and dissipate by tomorrow. Satellite shows Douglas as a disorganized cluster of deep convection at northwest corner of 14 UTC IR image (below).

Light Showers Yesterday

View of showers over western Catalinas and this part of town at 4:15 pm CST yesterday afternoon.

ALERT rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. We had frequent thunder and 0.04" here at the house around 3 to 5 pm yesterday afternoon. The airport and Atmo had no rainfall , while DM reported a Trace.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a dry week ahead (above).

The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) highlights fire weather conditions tomorrow and Sunday.

As for the monsoon storm season: an old, empirical definition used to require three consecutive days with an average daily dewpoint of 60 F or higher. Current Td tracker (below) shows that we have yet to have one such day. Current GFS forecasts indicate that the Four-Corners anticyclone does not set up until after July 4th. So, things are off to a slow start this year.

Summer Solstice

Yesterday was the summer solstice and the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. Photos of the solstice at Stonehenge above and below.

Quick Update

 

Photo of double rainbow by neighbor John Ferner, taken Wednesday afternoon

My previous post reported some poles down west of airport. However, the morning paper today reported there were many poles down that afternoon and evening across southern parts of Tucson. Only a single report made it into the SPC data base.

Heavy Storms

Heavy rain on Catalinas about 5:15 pm MST yesterday afternoon. View of orange rain at bottom was around 7 pm when sun broke-thru to illuminate the rain.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC, above), shows heavy activity across eastern Pima County. There were several loud crashes of thunder here at house. There was also a report of power poles down a bit west of the airport,

Rain amounts across the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning (above and below) show widespread reports with a couple of sites exceeding an inch. Here at the house we had 0.38"; DM had 0.33"; while Atmo and airport reported 0.65".

Local Outlook

Sunrise east of the Catalinas this morning.

The local NWS outlook here is for a chance of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds (above). However, SPC outlook for today keeps severe storm risks far to northeast of our area. The current NWS forecast for the airport is second below.

Update And Monsoon "Start"

View looking toward the Rincons at around 4:30 am MST this morning.

There is an article in the the morning paper that states the 2026 monsoon has arrived, right on time. However, this is based on the NWS definition of a "Monsoon Season" running from June 15th to September 30th. This definition ignores the actual meteorological conditions that might be prevailing.

Yesterday's 0.19" of rainfall presents an example of the problems of the seasonal definition.

The rainfall was associated with a weak shortwave that sneaked in from the Pacific - consider the 500 mb charts from the 06 UTC GFS forecasts.

The 500 mb chart for this morning (above) shows the weak disturbance over Arizona. The 7-day forecast (below) shows the typical monsoon high at 500 mb situated across central Baja, with a weak trough still across Arizona. The fourteen day forecast (bottom) indicates a large trough dominating the western US at 500 mb. There is no indication in the forecasts of the typical Four-Corners anticyclone that defines the summer monsoon circulation at 500 mb. So, if the forecasts are accurate, the start of the summer monsoon, from my perspective, remains several weeks away.