Quiet Day

Color toward the Rincons about 5:30 am MST this morning.

The day yesterday was mostly quiet, as per lack of any reports across the entire ALERT Network (above - for 24-hours ending at 11:00 am this morning).

Current NBM (National Best Model) forecast for rainfall through 12 UTC tomorrow morning. This morning's NWS forecast for airport through weekend is shown below.

Finally Some Rain

Bright CG flash over eastern foothills a bit before midnight last night.

There was widespread rainfall during 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC this morning across southern 2/3rds of ALERT network (above). This is consistent with the active CG flashes detected across southern portions of Pima County through 0903 UTC (below, from Atmo). Note the very heavy amounts southwest of the airport, and the many amounts over half an inch. Here at the house we had 0.17", while TUS reported thunder with gusts to 44 mph and 0.37"; DM had thunder and gusts to 48 mph with 0.16"; and Atmo reported 0.08".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a mostly quite week, with perhaps some shower activity early next week. The GEFS POPs from same runs (below) indicate POPs at airport of 30 to 60 percent at airport through entire coming seven days. The morning forecast from NWS through Saturday for airport is shown at bottom.

Very Quiet Day Yesterday

View of the Grand Canyon at 10:00 am MST this morning, from Grand Canyon Village.

Despite the active forecasts for yesterday afternoon and evening (see previous post), it turned out to be very quiet. The ALERT chart for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am (above) shows only one meagre report from east edge of network. 

Plumes for QPF today (above - from 06 UTC GEFS runs) again indicate an active afternoon and evening. The TUS POPs from same runs are very high today and the drop but gradually increase toward end of coming week. Current NWS morning forecast for the airport is at bottom, indicating only 40 percent chances this evening.

Rain But Not Here

View toward Rincons and Redington Pass at about 5:30 am MST this morning.

There was widespread, light rain across southern portions of the ALERT Network yesterday (above, for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning). Note that only one site reported more than half an inch. Nothing here - making the current dry spell at house two weeks long.

There were 13 reports of severe winds yesterday evening across southeastern Arizona (below from SPC). The airport reported a gust to 71 mph with thunder and 0.29", while DM had thunder, gusts to 55 mph and 0.42".

Current plumes for QPF at TUS from 06 UTC GEFS runs. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) reach over 50 percent for a number of days during coming week. Current NWS forecast for the airport is at the bottom, with a Flash Flood watch for this evening..

Showers And Gusty Winds

Pre-dawn color over the Rincons at about 5:00 am MST this morning.

Morning graphics from the NWS show chances for thunderstorms today (above), and blowing dust advisory areas for this afternoon (below). Panel at bottom is 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for winds valid this afternoon. (Note - panel below is hard to read here but is more clear on NWS webpage.)

July Summary

 

Storms on Catalinas at 5:40 pm on July 16th.

Rainfall during July totaled 1.09" - this was the fifth driest July here since 1999. There was measurable rain on 7 days. There were two days when I estimated gusts of 40 to 50 mph with the storms.

Scattered Showers

Catalina sunrise view at 5:40 am MST this morning. Lightning flashes east of Rincons occurred around 4:00 am (bottom).

Numerous CG flashes detected through 1303 UTC (below) and ALERT reports (above) avoided main metro area and region north of Catalinas. Airport reported a gust to 48 mph and a Trace; DM reported thunder and a gust to 30 and Atmo reported a gust to 30 mph - all around midnight. Perhaps a Trace and thunder here but can't verify this.