Another Down Day

View of the Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above) for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC this morning shows almost no thunderstorm activity across all of Arizona - very suppressed across southeast Arizona. No precip reported across the ALERT Network yesterday.

Plumes for QPF at TUS (above, from 06 UTC runs) indicate a wet weekend on the horizon. Plumes from same runs (below) indicate several windy days on tap, with very high POPs for the weekend (second below).

Seven day precipitation forecast (from the 06 UTC GFS - below) indicates heavy rains for much of Arizona.

Very Suppressed

Clear skies over our region this morning.

Yesterday was very suppressed with clear skies prevailing and no rainfall - as per ALERT data below, ending at 9:00 am MST.

TS Eselle

I have neglected to mention TS Iselle, which developed yesterday morning in the eastern Pacific. An IR image (above) shows Iselle this afternoon at 2120 UTC, disturbance 10E is to her south-southwest. Iselle is expected to become a hurricane soon (below) and to track westward away from the Mexican coast.

Showers And Gusty Winds

Early morning view of the Catalinas at 6 am this morning.

Showers were scattered around the ALERT area yesterday afternoon (above), again exceeding expectations a bit. They were accompanied by gusty surface winds, and several reports of severe wind gusts in Tucson area and also Pinal County. Here at house we had thunder and gusts I estimated at 40 to 50 mph, but only a brief Trace of rain. The airport reported thunder with gusts to 44 mph and 0.30" of rain; DM had thunder and 0.05" with gusts to 39; and Atmo had gusts to 30 mph and no rain.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate a quiet week until Friday or so, when chances for showers increase.

Emphasis in the NWS products this morning is on the hot week ahead - see chart above that shows the forecasts and records for locations in southeast Arizona. Current NWS forecast for TUS is shown below through Wednesday.

Colorful Sunrise

Golden skies this morning looking toward the Rincons from campus at 5:30 am MST.

Isolated reports of rainfall across parts of the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. Quite dry here again.

The GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate only slight chances of mostly light showers at the airport through the coming week. The POPs (below) at the airport are also mostly low until next weekend.

More Activity Than Expected

View toward the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.

The plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 0930 UTC) indicates more thunderstorm coverage yesterday than was expected (see previous post).

ALERT plot for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am (below) shows rainfall scattered across the network. Here at house we had thunder and brief shower in the early evening, with 0.02" in gauge this morning. The airport reported thunder and a Trace, as did DM, but Atmo had 0.14".

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) continue to indicate a mostly quiet week ahead. The POPs from same runs are maximum today, approaching 40 percent at TUS, but also indicate a mostly quiet week. The current NWS forecast for the weekend at airport is at bottom.

Slight Chances For Showers

Clear skies over southeast Arizona at 9:30 am MST this morning.

Across the entire ALERT Network only three sites reported reported light amounts yesterday - above.

Plumes for QPF (above) from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS today indicate only slight chances for light showers through the coming seven days, The POPs for  rain at TUS (below, from same runs) show only slight chances for measurable rainfall.

The graphic above from NWS this morning shows chances for rain amounts of 0.10" or more for today. However, the morning forecast for the airport (below) seems out-of-sync with the graphic, since it indicates only 10 percent chance of 0.01" today.

Severe Storms

Storms moving moving into parts of metro area around 6:00 pm MST yesterday.

The storms eventually affected most of Arizona, with a large MCS over the southwestern part of the state at 6:00 am this morning.

There was rain across most of the ALERT Network yesterday evening (above) - Here at house we had 0.20"; TUS reported 0.29"; DM had 1.11"; and Atmo reported only 0.15". There were numerous reports of severe winds and hail across the Southwest (below). I estimated gusts of 40 to 50 mph here; TUS reported gusts to 63 mph; DM had 54 mph; and Atmo had gusts to 49 mph. 

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate a much quieter period ahead, as does the NWS morning forecast through Saturday (below).