Rainy Outlook

View of Catalinas at 11:00 am MST this morning, showing high clouds and slightly dirty air.

Current NWS graphic from NWS for the weekend. The color scheme doesn't seem to quite match the legend on the right.

Plumes for QPF at the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, indicating significant rains late tomorrow through Sunday. The plumes for temperature (below) indicate a dramatic cool-down Sunday and Monday.

POPs for the airport (below) are very high for tomorrow and Sunday.

The NBM 12 UTC run above shows total precipitation through 12 UTC on Monday, with much of Arizona forecast to have heavy amounts. Current am forecast for the airport through the weekend is shown below, with a flood watch late Saturday and Sunday.

Week Ahead

View of Catalinas at 9:00 am MST this morning.

ALERT rain reports (above) were scattered across eastern portions of the array for 24-hours ending at 9 am this morning. Plumes for QPF (below - from 06 UTC GEFS runs) keep things dry until around end of next week.

Unusual Event

View of Flagstaff at 8:30 am MST this morning, with heavy clouds shadowing the city.

There were 39 severe wind and hail reports yesterday and they all occurred within Arizona - very unusual.

The significant rain event the models were advertising for yesterday failed to materialize - as per ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 8:30 am (above). Another dry day here at house. Current NWS forecast for the airport (below) indicates chance of storms today and then mild and dry through rest of week.

More Showers

View of Catalinas at 6:50 am MST this morning.

Isolated, light rain reports in northwest portions of the ALERT network through  10 am (below). Nothing here.

The 06 UTC GEFS runs are still bullish on precipitation through tomorrow (above). POPs for the airport reach above 90 percent during this period (below).

NWS morning graphic (above) focusses on chances for severe storms. Current forecast for the airport is shown below - POPs are less aggressive than the GEFS runs.

Scattered Showers Yesterday

View of the Catalinas at 7:15 am MST this morning.

ALERT Network rainfall reports through 8:00 am this morning. Note that almost all reports are less than a quarter of an inch. Here at house we had thunder and 0.06" around 9:00 pm last evening; TUS reported thunder and 0.11"; DM had thunder and 0.15"; while Atmo reported 0.08".

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF at airport (above) indicate a fairly significant event next Thursday night. The POPs reach almost 90 percent for that period (below).

The 12 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb heights at 12 UTC on Saturday is shown above, indicating a strong shortwave moving across Arizona.

NWS graphic for rain chances today shown above - note the inset was too small to be readable at this scale. Current NWS forecast for the airport shown below, with POPs reaching 70 percent on Thursday.

Chance For Showers

View of Rincons at 6:15 am this morning.

Only two sites in the ALERT Network reported rain in the last 24 hours, as per plot above.

Winds were very strong yesterday and last night. Airport has been gusting over 50 mph since around 9:00 pm last night. Max gust at airport reached 63 mph, but nearby obs at Atmo and DM indicated peaks of only 37 and 36 mph.

Plumes for QPF from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) indicate chances for light showers this evening and again later next week. The POPs for same runs reach 70 percent at TUS this evening (below).

NWS graphic showing chances for precipitation tonight - above. Current forecast for the airport shown below.

Nasty Morning

Blowing dust obscuring skies and mountains this morning.

High wind warning in effect with numerous strong gusts. Airport has reported 47 mph; DM and Atmo 37 mph; and I estimate 40 to 50 mph here at house. Surface map from from 11:15 am MST (below) shows current situation.