Some Sprinkles Here

 

View of Catalinas yesterday morning from about 11:35 am MST shows some light showers over this part of town. They didn't amount to much, but did leave 0.01" in the gauge here.

Light Showers This Morning

Note - Total rain yesterday was only 0.06" here.

View looking toward the Catalinas at 10 am MST this morning, showing showers over northern parts of metro area. Image at bottom shows some snow at same time up at Summerhaven General Store.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate very light showers this morning.

Alert Network rainfall reports are concentrated across the northern portion of the array, with generally light amounts. Here at the house we've had 0.06" so far this morning.

Current NWS forecast for the airport indicates clear skies, but with slight chance of showers overnight.

Rain Event 17 February

View of rain at 3:30 am 17 February, looking toward the Catalinas.

Rainfall reports across the ALERT Network on 17 February (above and below). Here at the house we had 0.19".

Statement from the NWS this morning re gusty winds (above), and am forecast for the airport (below).

Widespread Showers Yesterday

View of Catalinas through light rain at 8:30 am MST yesterday morning.

ALERT rainfall yesterday (above and below) across metro area. Coverage forecasts were good, but amounts at many sites were lower than expected. Here at house we had 0.11" during the day - this was our first rain in February.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate good chances for more light showers on the 17th next week. The plumes for temperature (below) show warming through the weekend, and then cooling next week. The plumes for POPs at the airport (second below) hit 90 percent for next Tuesday, and one member mixes in a bit of snow later in the week.

Unsettled Period Ahead

Pre-sunrise view at a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons.

Things will become unsettled as a strong short-wave moves across Arizona during the day on the 13th - above shows GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 18 UTC on the 13th.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate strong chances for light rain on Friday into Saturday morning. Another period of possible showers follows early next week.

The temperature plumes (above) forecast a very cool day on the 13th, and several cool days early next week. The plumes for wind (below) indicate strong winds next week.

The POPs from the GEFS runs indicate nearly 100 percent chances for measurable rain at the airport on the 13th. Chances early next week are much less, but one member also mixes in a touch of snow.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for total precipitation through 12 UTC on Valentines Day (above) indicates some amounts around an inch across eastern Pima County. The current morning forecast from the NWS is shown below. Not sure what led to the 70 percent POPs for next Monday night.

Quick Update

View of Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning - February 9th -showing perfectly clear skies

Plumes from the 06 GEFS runs shown here for QPF, T, and POPs. Chances for light showers are greatest on the 13th and 14th (above). Temperatures are forecast to fall dramatically, after a warm day today (below). While POPs exceed 50 percent on 13th and early on Valentine's Day (second below).

Groundhog Day 2026

 

Punxsutawney Phil says more winter weather to come.

Below is classic image from the Bill Murray film.