Unsettled Period Ahead

Pre-sunrise view at a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons.

Things will become unsettled as a strong short-wave moves across Arizona during the day on the 13th - above shows GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 18 UTC on the 13th.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate strong chances for light rain on Friday into Saturday morning. Another period of possible showers follows early next week.

The temperature plumes (above) forecast a very cool day on the 13th, and several cool days early next week. The plumes for wind (below) indicate strong winds next week.

The POPs from the GEFS runs indicate nearly 100 percent chances for measurable rain at the airport on the 13th. Chances early next week are much less, but one member also mixes in a touch of snow.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for total precipitation through 12 UTC on Valentines Day (above) indicates some amounts around an inch across eastern Pima County. The current morning forecast from the NWS is shown below. Not sure what led to the 70 percent POPs for next Monday night.

Quick Update

View of Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning - February 9th -showing perfectly clear skies

Plumes from the 06 GEFS runs shown here for QPF, T, and POPs. Chances for light showers are greatest on the 13th and 14th (above). Temperatures are forecast to fall dramatically, after a warm day today (below). While POPs exceed 50 percent on 13th and early on Valentine's Day (second below).

Groundhog Day 2026

 

Punxsutawney Phil says more winter weather to come.

Below is classic image from the Bill Murray film.

Widespread Rain Event

View of Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday on the 24th of January.

Rain amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for two day period ending at 8 am this morning. Quite a few sites had over half an inch, with a few sites reporting over an inch.

Here at the house we had a total of 0.34" - looks like rain here had ended by midnight last night.

Light Showers Most Of Area

View toward the Catalinas at 6:40 am MST this morning, showing showers along the foothills.

Precipitation amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for 24-hours ending at 8 am this morning. Here at the house we had 0.12"; the airport had 0.16"; DM had 0.12"; and Atmo reported 0.09".  Two sites, one in the Catalinas and one in the Rincons, had more than half an inch, while most amounts were quite light.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF are focused on this afternoon and tonight, with amounts from a tenth to just over half an inch. The plumes for POPs (below) hit 100 percent tonight.

Forecast (below) from the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR shows predicted precipitation amounts through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.

Rainy Weekend

Some pre-sunrise color looking a bit south of the Rincons at 7:15 am MST this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF (above) indicate rainy conditions starting tomorrow and continuing through Sunday, with a pretty large range in amounts.

The plumes for T (above) indicate warm today but with dramatic cooling through the weekend. The POPs reach up to 70 to 80 percent, as per below.

The current NWS outlooks for rain and snow are above and the morning forecast for the airport (with POPs reaching 80 percent) is shown below.

Significant Precip Event

View of snow cover at Summerhaven General Store from 8:00 am MST this morning. At bottom is view of Catalinas and rain showers yesterday at 10 am - about an hour after the rain had begun here at the house.

Rain (and some snow in mountains) occurred across the entire ALERT Network during the 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (above and below). There were many sites with a half to well over an inch of rain. Here at the house there was 0.79" in the gauge at 8:00 am.

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport (above). Below is the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo for rain amounts through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.