View of Table Mountain and Finger Rock at 7:40 am MST this morning.
Saturday, March 16, 2024
Quick Summary
Friday, March 15, 2024
Showers West Of Metro Area
View of pre-sunrise colors looking toward the Rincons at 6:35 am MST this morning. View at bottom is looking toward the Catalinas at 6:40 am.
At 500 mb this morning (above) the closed low is centered somewhere near Yuma. The low is forecast to linger over Arizona into early next week. The GFS forecast below is valid at 00 UTC on St. Patrick's Day.
This morning there are showers west of interstates, that are moving rapidly northward. The precipitation forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-RR (below) is valid for the period ending at midnight tonight. Widespread rain/snow covers all of Pima County. The morning NWS forecast for the airport is giving a 60 percent chance of measurable rainfall today.
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Showers Likely Tomorrow
View of Rincons before sunrise this morning.
Analysis for 500 mb at 12 UTC this morning (from SPC). Note that closed circulation is actually over southwest Utah, rather position indicated on analysis. Forecast from 06 UTC GFS (below) moves the low center to southwest Arizona by 12 UTC tomorrow morning.
Forecast above is from the 12 UTC WRF-RR run at Atmo - shown is precipitation forecast by the model through noon on Saturday. Current morning forecast from the TUS Forecast Office is shown below.
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Showers Possible By End Of Week
View looking toward Rincons/Redington Pass at 6:55 am MST this morning.
The GEFS plumes for rainfall amounts at airport (from 06 UTC runs - above) indicate showery periods into early next week. Note the wide range of values and timing, so things are a bit uncertain at this time. The plumes from same runs for winds (below) indicate the possibility of some gustiness and stronger speeds for tomorrow and Thursday.
The GFS 500 mb forecast (above from 06 UTC run shows a strong, closed low over Arizona and southern California at 12 UTC on the 15th (Friday).
Monday, March 11, 2024
Winter Summaries
Nasty driving conditions on I-10 morning of February 28th.
Winter overview - Rainfall here at house was 4.74" for December through February. This was the third wettest winter season here since 1999. Wettest winter was 2007/08 with 5.75", and second wettest was 2019/20 with 5.05".
For comparison, the driest winters here have been: 1999/00 with 0.31"; 2021/22 with 0.61"; and 2013/14 with 0.67".
Friday, March 08, 2024
Widespread Precipitation
View at 7:15 am MST this morning looking toward Catalinas. At bottom is view of snowy conditions in Summerhaven at 7:00 am.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1123 UTC this morning (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that there was widespread thunderstorm activity across much of Pima County yesterday afternoon. Airport reported thunder, but nearby DM did not.
There was essentially 100 percent coverage across the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 10:30 am this morning (above and below). Many sites reported over half an inch, with two sites in Catalinas reporting over an inch.
Thursday, March 07, 2024
Showers Likely
A bit of pre-sunrise color this morning looking toward Redington Pass at 6:15 am MST.
Forecast above shows total precipitation forecast by the 09 UTC WRF-HRRR at Atmo with accumulated rain and high elevation snow across all of eastern Pima County. Current morning forecast graphic/statement from the NWS Forecast Office is shown below.