Morning Showers

Heavy shower this part of town at 8:50 am this morning.

ALERT Network reports for 24-hours ending at 8:30 am this morning (above). We had 0.19" here with thunder; TUS reported gusts to 58 mph with thunder and 0.14"; DM had thunder and gusts to 36 mph with 0.05"; and Atmo had gusts to 40 mph with 0.21". I only see one site in the Network with over half an inch.

Plumes for QPF (above from 06 UTC GEFS runs) indicate a bit more in way of showers early and late in period. Plumes for winds (below, from same runs) indicate windy today, but very windy next weekend.

POPs for the airport are high today (above), in contrast to current NWS forecast that has relatively low POPs (below).

Forecast For Holiday Weekend

Light shower at eastern end of Catalinas at 8:30 am MST this morning. Monday is Columbus Day, which is still a Holiday for some folks.

Only a few scattered rainfall reports in the ALERT Network this morning (above). Same with CG flashes detected - a few in eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon (below).

The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory for tomorrow, as per graphic below.

Current SPC plumes for QPF at TUS shown above, and morning forecast for TUS is below.

Unsettled Weekend

Nice color over the Rincons (top) and Catalinas (bottom) a bit before 6:30 am MST this morning.

Plumes for QPF (from 06 UTC GEFS runs - above) continue to indicate a wet and active weekend. The chances for rain at the airport from same runs (below) indicate high POPs for the 11th and 12th. 

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport is below.

The Tropics remain very active, as shown in the TPW image for 15 UTC (above). TS Rachel is west of Baja; Hurricane Simon is off the Mexican Coast; and Hurricane Isaias is headed for a landfall on the Florida Panhandle (current NHC outlook shown below).

Complicated Situation

Pre-sunrise glow over the Rincons a bit before 6:00 am MST this morning. View at bottom shows crescent moonrise, looking same direction at a bit before 5:00 am.

There are two tropical storms over the eastern Pacific this morning. Former Hurricane Rachel (above) is much weakened and it is forecast to turn northeast and be over the lower Colorado River Basin by Sunday. To the South, TS Simon is forecast to rapidly become a major hurricane and move toward Cabo Corrientes by Sunday. Thus, there will be lower pressure both to north and south of GoC, competing to pull moisture both northward and southward.

The TPW image (below, from 15 UTC) shows Rachel, Simon, and also Hurricane Isaias over the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, high PWs extend about halfway up the GoC, so a real tug-of-war is setting up for the weekend. At this time, it is not clear to me whether Rachel or Simon will dominate the moisture transports.

The NWS take on this is a bit different than mine, as per graphic above. The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) puts the emphasis on Saturday, with POPs at 50 to 60 percent. Regardless, it should be an interesting weekend here. Note that hurricane in GoM is fcst to move rapidly northward and strike the eastern Gulf Coast area by tomorrow evening.

Fair Weather

Views of the Rincons at 5:45 am MST (above), and of the Catalinas at 6:45 am (bottom - both on October 5th). Outlook from NWS for coming work week (below) indicates mild and dry conditions continuing.

Heavy Rain Here

Downpour on campus yesterday morning at 9:45 am MST.

Widespread reports of over an inch across the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above). Here at the house there was 0.90" in the gauge. Atmo reported 0.79", while DM had 0.34" and the airport noted 0.31".

The NWS morning forecast for the airport (below) calls for an extended period of tranquil weather as October begins.

Rainy Morning

Showers along the Catalinas at 6:30 am MST this morning.

ALERT reports as of  7:00 am (above) showing mostly light amounts. Here at house there was 0.08" in the gauge at 7:00 am (however, it is raining again as I write this). The airport reported 0.04"; DM had 0.03"; and Atmo had 0.08". Plot of detected CG flashes (below - from Atmo) indicates widespread thunderstorm activity across Pima County this morning.

QPF plumes from SPC this morning (above) call for fairly significant rain here today. The current forecast from the NWS Forecast Office for the airport is below, calling for 100% POPs today. Latest advisory re Hurricane Polo from NHC is at bottom.