Severe Storms Yesterday

Storms with rain and blowing dust moving westward across metro area at 5:50 pm MST yesterday.

Rain was widespread across the ALERT Network yesterday as per above and below plots ending at 11:00 am this morning.  We had storms here around 6:00 pm with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Only got 0.17" in the gauge, along with a brief power outage. Atmo reported 0.31" with gusts to 50 mph; TUS had 0.02" and gusts to 56 mph; while DM reported gusts of 81 mph with just a Trace. One very heavy amount reported east of metro can not be discounted.

Today's outlook (above) and forecast for the airport from NWS (below) indicate high POPs continuing through Tuesday.

Isolated Showers Yesterday

Sunrise colors over the eastern Catalinas at about 5:30 am MST this morning.

Light rain reports at only 4 southern sites across the ALERT Network - above shows 24-hour rain ending at 9:00 am this morning. Morning graphic from the NWS re today's outlook (below), with main focus to east of Pima County.

GEFS plumes for QPF at airport from 06 UTC runs (above) continue to indicate very active week - operational GFS (blue trace) continues to be a seriously heavy outlier.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb valid 00 UTC on the 13th (5:00 pm Sunday evening) shows the anticyclone centered over northwestern Colorado, with weak troughs impacting the Arizona/Mexico borderlands. Forecast for 6-hour rainfall ending at same time (below) indicates a wet afternoon Sunday. Current NWS forecast for the airport through Sunday is shown at bottom.

Limited Shower Activity Yesterday

Some color to the east this morning before sunrise at 4:40 am MST.

Plot of detected CG flashes during the 24-hours ending at 1003 UTC (03:03 am). Note that there were two reports of wind damage in our area yesterday: light tree damage east of the airport and a mesonet station gust to 70 mph out at Sells.

Rain amounts from the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. Heaviest rains were over the eastern Catalinas (above) extending east and southeast to the foothills and Redington Pass. There was also rainfall over the southern part of the Network (below).

Plumes for rainfall at TUS from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) continue to indicate an active week. There has not yet been any rain here at the house during July. The POPs from same runs (below) indicate a max of 60 percent this evening extending into the night. Current forecast for the airport from the NWS Office is at bottom.

Scattered Showers Yesterday

Hazy skies overhead at 11 am MST this morning.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 11 am (below) show reports northeastern and southern parts of network, with over half an inch at two sites. There was a rumble of thunder here late afternoon, but no rain.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs shown here: QPF at airport (above) continue to indicate an active week, with POPs (below) reaching 70 percent next Monday. Current NWS forecast for today and tomorrow is at bottom.

Storms Forecast Today

Half moon over northern Rincons just after midnight last night. Other object is a police or hospital helicopter over the city.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above from 06 UTC runs of the GEFS) indicate chances for light showers most days of coming week. Note that the operational GFS (blue trace) is a seriously heavy outlier. The POPs at the airport (from same runs - below) reach toward 60 percent next Sunday night.

Morning NWS graphic above re storm chance today and current morning forecast for the airport (below). Note the continuing extreme heat warning for our area.

Interesting there was a report of a landspout tornado just south of Joseph City (SPC reports map above), Arizona yesterday afternoon from a motorist on I-40. Joseph City is just west of Holbrook and is most famous for the Jack Rabbit Trading Post (sign below). Note that the trading post is actually six miles west of Joseph City.

June Summary

View of the Catalinas at about 9:30 am MST this morning showing perfectly clear skies.

June ended with measurable rainfall here on 3 days, with most rain falling on the 15th and 17th - 0.19" and 0.38". This was somewhat unusual with the middle of the month being active. Total  for month was 0.61" with thunder here at house on two days. This was the fifth wettest June since 1999, when I started my records.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate indicate increasing chances for rain after the 6th of July. The GEFS POPs at airport (below) reach to almost 30 percent on the 8th next week.

Far to the southwest, TS Douglas developed late yesterday. Current NHC track forecast above indicates Douglas will remain a TS and dissipate by tomorrow. Satellite shows Douglas as a disorganized cluster of deep convection at northwest corner of 14 UTC IR image (below).

Light Showers Yesterday

View of showers over western Catalinas and this part of town at 4:15 pm CST yesterday afternoon.

ALERT rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. We had frequent thunder and 0.04" here at the house around 3 to 5 pm yesterday afternoon. The airport and Atmo had no rainfall , while DM reported a Trace.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a dry week ahead (above).

The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) highlights fire weather conditions tomorrow and Sunday.

As for the monsoon storm season: an old, empirical definition used to require three consecutive days with an average daily dewpoint of 60 F or higher. Current Td tracker (below) shows that we have yet to have one such day. Current GFS forecasts indicate that the Four-Corners anticyclone does not set up until after July 4th. So, things are off to a slow start this year.