Groundhog Day 2026

 

Punxsutawney Phil says more winter weather to come.

Below is classic image from the Bill Murray film.

Widespread Rain Event

View of Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday on the 24th of January.

Rain amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for two day period ending at 8 am this morning. Quite a few sites had over half an inch, with a few sites reporting over an inch.

Here at the house we had a total of 0.34" - looks like rain here had ended by midnight last night.

Light Showers Most Of Area

View toward the Catalinas at 6:40 am MST this morning, showing showers along the foothills.

Precipitation amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for 24-hours ending at 8 am this morning. Here at the house we had 0.12"; the airport had 0.16"; DM had 0.12"; and Atmo reported 0.09".  Two sites, one in the Catalinas and one in the Rincons, had more than half an inch, while most amounts were quite light.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF are focused on this afternoon and tonight, with amounts from a tenth to just over half an inch. The plumes for POPs (below) hit 100 percent tonight.

Forecast (below) from the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR shows predicted precipitation amounts through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.

Rainy Weekend

Some pre-sunrise color looking a bit south of the Rincons at 7:15 am MST this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF (above) indicate rainy conditions starting tomorrow and continuing through Sunday, with a pretty large range in amounts.

The plumes for T (above) indicate warm today but with dramatic cooling through the weekend. The POPs reach up to 70 to 80 percent, as per below.

The current NWS outlooks for rain and snow are above and the morning forecast for the airport (with POPs reaching 80 percent) is shown below.

Significant Precip Event

View of snow cover at Summerhaven General Store from 8:00 am MST this morning. At bottom is view of Catalinas and rain showers yesterday at 10 am - about an hour after the rain had begun here at the house.

Rain (and some snow in mountains) occurred across the entire ALERT Network during the 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (above and below). There were many sites with a half to well over an inch of rain. Here at the house there was 0.79" in the gauge at 8:00 am.

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport (above). Below is the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo for rain amounts through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.

Chance For Rain Tomorrow

High clouds overhead at 8:30 am MST 6 January.

GEFS 06 UTC plumes - above: QPS, showing significant amounts for tomorrow and perhaps a chance for a bit more on Thursday. Temperature is forecast to fall significantly rest of week and then rebound strongly (below). The POPs from the model runs indicate 100 percent tomorrow and a second peak of 70 percent on Thursday (second below).

Graphic from the NWS (below from yesterday and this morning) shows possible amounts for southeastern Arizona.

December 2025 Summary

View of Rincons at 7:10 am MST on December 17th, 2025.

There was measurable rainfall on 5 days during December here at the house. The heaviest amounts were 0.14" on both Christmas Eve and again on Christmas day. The total for the month was 0.40". This tied with 2003 as the 7th driest December since I started my records in 1999.