Halloween Dawns Wet

Rain showers along the Catalinas just before 7:00 am MST this morning.

ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Amount in gauge here is almost 0.75", but that includes yesterday's events plus the early morning addition.

Plumes (from 06 UTC GEFS runs - above - indicate big event this weekend, focussed on tomorrow.

Dramatic temperature drops Sunday and Monday (above). High POPs late today into Monday (below). Current forecast from the NWS is at the bottom.

Rainy Morning

Rain this part of town - view is from 8:50 am MST.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 8:45 am this morning. Here at house there was 0.47" in the gauge at 7:00 am - is raining again here.

Plot above shows QPF for the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs - model continues to indicate a significant event today and this weekend. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) show right at 100 percent for two periods. Current NWS forecast for the airport shown at bottom.

Rainy Outlook

View of Catalinas at 11:00 am MST this morning, showing high clouds and slightly dirty air.

Current NWS graphic from NWS for the weekend. The color scheme doesn't seem to quite match the legend on the right.

Plumes for QPF at the airport from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, indicating significant rains late tomorrow through Sunday. The plumes for temperature (below) indicate a dramatic cool-down Sunday and Monday.

POPs for the airport (below) are very high for tomorrow and Sunday.

The NBM 12 UTC run above shows total precipitation through 12 UTC on Monday, with much of Arizona forecast to have heavy amounts. Current am forecast for the airport through the weekend is shown below, with a flood watch late Saturday and Sunday.

Week Ahead

View of Catalinas at 9:00 am MST this morning.

ALERT rain reports (above) were scattered across eastern portions of the array for 24-hours ending at 9 am this morning. Plumes for QPF (below - from 06 UTC GEFS runs) keep things dry until around end of next week.

Unusual Event

View of Flagstaff at 8:30 am MST this morning, with heavy clouds shadowing the city.

There were 39 severe wind and hail reports yesterday and they all occurred within Arizona - very unusual.

The significant rain event the models were advertising for yesterday failed to materialize - as per ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 8:30 am (above). Another dry day here at house. Current NWS forecast for the airport (below) indicates chance of storms today and then mild and dry through rest of week.

More Showers

View of Catalinas at 6:50 am MST this morning.

Isolated, light rain reports in northwest portions of the ALERT network through  10 am (below). Nothing here.

The 06 UTC GEFS runs are still bullish on precipitation through tomorrow (above). POPs for the airport reach above 90 percent during this period (below).

NWS morning graphic (above) focusses on chances for severe storms. Current forecast for the airport is shown below - POPs are less aggressive than the GEFS runs.

Scattered Showers Yesterday

View of the Catalinas at 7:15 am MST this morning.

ALERT Network rainfall reports through 8:00 am this morning. Note that almost all reports are less than a quarter of an inch. Here at house we had thunder and 0.06" around 9:00 pm last evening; TUS reported thunder and 0.11"; DM had thunder and 0.15"; while Atmo reported 0.08".

Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS runs for QPF at airport (above) indicate a fairly significant event next Thursday night. The POPs reach almost 90 percent for that period (below).

The 12 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb heights at 12 UTC on Saturday is shown above, indicating a strong shortwave moving across Arizona.

NWS graphic for rain chances today shown above - note the inset was too small to be readable at this scale. Current NWS forecast for the airport shown below, with POPs reaching 70 percent on Thursday.