Scattered Showers Yesterday

Hazy skies overhead at 11 am MST this morning.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 11 am (below) show reports northeastern and southern parts of network, with over half an inch at two sites. There was a rumble of thunder here late afternoon, but no rain.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs shown here: QPF at airport (above) continue to indicate an active week, with POPs (below) reaching 70 percent next Monday. Current NWS forecast for today and tomorrow is at bottom.

Storms Forecast Today

Half moon over northern Rincons just after midnight last night. Other object is a police or hospital helicopter over the city.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above from 06 UTC runs of the GEFS) indicate chances for light showers most days of coming week. Note that the operational GFS (blue trace) is a seriously heavy outlier. The POPs at the airport (from same runs - below) reach toward 60 percent next Sunday night.

Morning NWS graphic above re storm chance today and current morning forecast for the airport (below). Note the continuing extreme heat warning for our area.

Interesting there was a report of a landspout tornado just south of Joseph City (SPC reports map above), Arizona yesterday afternoon from a motorist on I-40. Joseph City is just west of Holbrook and is most famous for the Jack Rabbit Trading Post (sign below). Note that the trading post is actually six miles west of Joseph City.

June Summary

View of the Catalinas at about 9:30 am MST this morning showing perfectly clear skies.

June ended with measurable rainfall here on 3 days, with most rain falling on the 15th and 17th - 0.19" and 0.38". This was somewhat unusual with the middle of the month being active. Total  for month was 0.61" with thunder here at house on two days. This was the fifth wettest June since 1999, when I started my records.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate indicate increasing chances for rain after the 6th of July. The GEFS POPs at airport (below) reach to almost 30 percent on the 8th next week.

Far to the southwest, TS Douglas developed late yesterday. Current NHC track forecast above indicates Douglas will remain a TS and dissipate by tomorrow. Satellite shows Douglas as a disorganized cluster of deep convection at northwest corner of 14 UTC IR image (below).

Light Showers Yesterday

View of showers over western Catalinas and this part of town at 4:15 pm CST yesterday afternoon.

ALERT rainfall reports for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. We had frequent thunder and 0.04" here at the house around 3 to 5 pm yesterday afternoon. The airport and Atmo had no rainfall , while DM reported a Trace.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF indicate a dry week ahead (above).

The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) highlights fire weather conditions tomorrow and Sunday.

As for the monsoon storm season: an old, empirical definition used to require three consecutive days with an average daily dewpoint of 60 F or higher. Current Td tracker (below) shows that we have yet to have one such day. Current GFS forecasts indicate that the Four-Corners anticyclone does not set up until after July 4th. So, things are off to a slow start this year.

Summer Solstice

Yesterday was the summer solstice and the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. Photos of the solstice at Stonehenge above and below.

Quick Update

 

Photo of double rainbow by neighbor John Ferner, taken Wednesday afternoon

My previous post reported some poles down west of airport. However, the morning paper today reported there were many poles down that afternoon and evening across southern parts of Tucson. Only a single report made it into the SPC data base.

Heavy Storms

Heavy rain on Catalinas about 5:15 pm MST yesterday afternoon. View of orange rain at bottom was around 7 pm when sun broke-thru to illuminate the rain.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC, above), shows heavy activity across eastern Pima County. There were several loud crashes of thunder here at house. There was also a report of power poles down a bit west of the airport,

Rain amounts across the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning (above and below) show widespread reports with a couple of sites exceeding an inch. Here at the house we had 0.38"; DM had 0.33"; while Atmo and airport reported 0.65".