Today, June 1st, is not only the first day of meteorological Summer, it is also the start of the Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic Basin. And, there is a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as the season begins - see below:
Thursday, June 01, 2023
Monday, May 29, 2023
Memorial Day 2023
Thursday, May 25, 2023
Very Warm And Dry
Out in the west Pacific, a satellite view of Super Typhoon Mawar (below) at 12 UTC this morning shows the storm's spectacular eye. The storm struck Guam late yesterday, doing significant damage. The storm currently has peak gusts over 200 mph.
Monday, May 22, 2023
Limited Thunderstorm Activity
Scattered high clouds over the Catalinas at about 5:15 am MST this morning. Down at bottom is view of Rincons and Jupiter rising about 4:15 am.
Most of Arizona had almost no thunderstorm activity, except along the northern border - plot of detected CG flashes (above - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 0133 am this morning.
The dry-out continues through the rest of the month, as typical May weather returns. Forecast above is from 06 UTC WRF-GFS and is for total precipitation through 5:00 am on the 29th. Below is GFS forecast for total precipitation through 0600 UTC on June 1st.
Saturday, May 20, 2023
Dry Out
Friday, May 19, 2023
Widespread Rainfall Yesterday
Showers along the foothills at 5:45 pm yesterday afternoon. Plot of detected CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending 1:03 am this morning shows thunderstorm activity occurred across northeast Pima County.
ALERT reports (above and below) indicate widespread rainfall with only eight sites not receiving 0.04" or more - heaviest amounts occurred out west of Picture Rocks area. Here at the house we had thunder, wind gusts around 30 mph, but only 0.07" of rain.
The TWC sounding this morning (above) has considerable mixed-layer CAPE, but substantial low-level heating will be needed for storms at low elevations. Winds aloft continue light and variable. The 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR does forecast rain across most of the metro area through midnight tonight (below).
Thursday, May 18, 2023
May Showers Continue
View of somewhat chaotic skies at 5:45 am MST this morning.
Yesterday was another day with unusual May showers and thunderstorms. Plot above shows detected CG flashes through midnight last night (from Atmo and Vaisala), with activity focused in our corner of Pima County. Rainfall was much more widespread than yesterday's predictions - see previous post. Activity again exceeded my expectations, based on the morning sounding.
Rainfall amounts from the ALERT network (below - for 24 hours ending at 6:30 am) show some spots got a bit over a quarter of an inch. Here at house we had 0.10" around 8:00 to 9:00 pm. I didn't hear any thunder, but the CG plot indicates there may have been some.
This morning's sounding (above) is similar to last two days, with the exception of rain cooled layer near the surface. Deep, mixed layer CAPE is again just a sliver. However, the 09 UTC WRF-RR forecast from Atmo (below) indicates a much more active day. Note the 0.40" predicted for the airport.
Second below shows the 06 UTC WRF-RR forecast for PW, which is indicated to decrease dramatically after today, and bring us more typical dry conditions for May.