Storms Yesterday Evening

Storms over the Catalinas at 5:40 pm yesterday afternoon.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo above through 0933 UTC this morning) shows scattered to isolated flashes across southeast Arizona.

ALERT plots (above and below) show fairly widespread activity across the Network, with highest amounts over Catalinas and southwest of metro area. Here at house we had thunder and showers after about 5:30 pm with 0.21" in gauge this morning. Atmo had 0.19"; TUS reported 0.09"; while DM reported only 0.02".

Plumes above from 06 UTC GEFS runs indicate a quiet week, with light rain amounts at the airport. Current morning forecast from the NWS Office for airport shown below.

Flash Flood Watch

Late post today. View of storm over the Catalinas at 2:00 pm MST this afternoon.

Plot of detected CG flashes (above for 24-hours ending at 1413 UTC this afternoon) shows a classic Tucson donut hole.

Rainfall across the ALERT Network yesterday (above and below) affected the northern and southern portions, mostly avoiding the metro area. However, here at the house we had a brief shower a bit after 7:00 pm that left 0.15" in the gauge.

There is a Flash Flood Watch in place for all of southeastern Arizona, as per above graphic from the NWS Forecast Office. Current forecast for the airport is shown below.

T. S. Elida

 

Tropical Storm Elida developed early yesterday far southwest of Baja. Image above is IR from 1620 UTC this morning. Current forecast from NHC (below) keeps the storm/hurricane far offshore during it's entire life.

Down Day Here

View of Catalinas at 7:30 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows a quiet day across most of Pima County. ALERT data (below) through 0833 UTC (0133 am) show only a few sites with rainfall - one site over an inch in Catalinas. Here at the house we had nothing, as per Atmo, TUS, and DM.

Plumes for QPF at airport (above) indicate a significant rain event tomorrow. POPs from the same runs (below) reach over 80 percent tomorrow evening. Current NWS forecast through Saturday (bottom) indicates high chances for storms through Saturday.

More Rain Here

Nice color looking toward the Rincons about 5:00 am MST this morning.

Some CG flashes across eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon. There were two reports of severe wind gusts in southeast Arizona yesterday afternoon - gusts to 59 mph near Marana and gusts to 62 mph near Bisbee. I didn't get an estimate made here, and I'm not sure whether there was thunder here.

Another day with widespread rain observed across the ALERT Network (above and below). We did have brief, heavy showers around 5 pm here, with 0.29" in the gauge this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes from the GEFS runs for QPF at the airport (above) start out slow, but ramp things up Thursday night into Friday. The airport POPs from same runs below reach over 60 percent on Thursday night. Current NWS forecast for the airport reaches up to 90 percent on Friday (bottom).

Another Severe Storm Day

Heavy storms over the Catalinas and eastern foothills at about 4:45 pm MST yesterday.

Numerous CG flashes detected yesterday across all of southeast Arizona and the Rim country as per above plot (from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 0833 UTC this morning.

Most ALERT sites reported 0.04" or more during the 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (above and below). Atmo reported 0.17" of rain; here we had gusty winds and 0.06"; TUS had thunder with gust to 59 mph and 0.09"; while DM had thunder, gust to 48 mph, but no reported total rainfall.

There were 8 reports of severe wind gusts in southeast Arizona yesterday, as well as 1 report of large hail (below). Here at the house we had gusty winds around 4:30 pm

Plumes for QPF from 06 UTC runs of the GEFS (above) show wet period continuing, with POPs at the airport (below) running about 30 to 60 percent. Current morning forecast for the airport is at bottom.

Severe Storms Yesterday

Storms with rain and blowing dust moving westward across metro area at 5:50 pm MST yesterday.

Rain was widespread across the ALERT Network yesterday as per above and below plots ending at 11:00 am this morning.  We had storms here around 6:00 pm with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Only got 0.17" in the gauge, along with a brief power outage. Atmo reported 0.31" with gusts to 50 mph; TUS had 0.02" and gusts to 56 mph; while DM reported gusts of 81 mph with just a Trace. One very heavy amount reported east of metro can not be discounted.

Today's outlook (above) and forecast for the airport from NWS (below) indicate high POPs continuing through Tuesday.

Isolated Showers Yesterday

Sunrise colors over the eastern Catalinas at about 5:30 am MST this morning.

Light rain reports at only 4 southern sites across the ALERT Network - above shows 24-hour rain ending at 9:00 am this morning. Morning graphic from the NWS re today's outlook (below), with main focus to east of Pima County.

GEFS plumes for QPF at airport from 06 UTC runs (above) continue to indicate very active week - operational GFS (blue trace) continues to be a seriously heavy outlier.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb valid 00 UTC on the 13th (5:00 pm Sunday evening) shows the anticyclone centered over northwestern Colorado, with weak troughs impacting the Arizona/Mexico borderlands. Forecast for 6-hour rainfall ending at same time (below) indicates a wet afternoon Sunday. Current NWS forecast for the airport through Sunday is shown at bottom.