Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS (above QPF and below temperature) indicate mild weather through the weekend but with an unsettled start to next week.
Thursday, February 02, 2023
February Second 2023
Wednesday, February 01, 2023
January Summary
I lost track of the morning lows and can only report that there were a number of mornings with temperatures between 25 and 32 F during the last several weeks.
Friday, January 27, 2023
End Of January
View of vivid blues skies over the Catalinas at 8:25 am MST this morning. Forecast models continue to indicate chances for light showers at end of the month.
The GFS forecast for 500 mb (above from 06 UTC runs) forecasts a very sharp trough over Arizona at 11:00 pm MST on the 31st. However, forecast of PW from same runs (below) indicates that the trough will have little moisture to work with.
Forecast for precipitation through that time (above) indicates little over most of Arizona. The 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo (below) is a bit more optimistic for area with precipitation (mostly very light) for all of Pima County. So, there'll be some chance for a bit more January at the airport and across the Metro area.
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Dry Rest Of Month?
Pristine blue skies over the Catalinas this morning at about 7:30 am MST. Lows over night (below) were mostly in the 20s F, but note the colder temperatures on the mountains. Low here at house was 24 F.
At 500 mb (above) there is a long stream of northerly flow from Canada south across Arizona, with cold low now shifted over the Big Bend of Texas.
GEFS plumes from 06 UTC (above for QPF and below for temperature) indicate slight chances for light rain at airport on last day of January, with moderating temperatures following this morning's cold.At bottom is GFS forecast for precipitation through 11:00 pm on January 31st. Little in the way of weather to look forward to through the last week of the month.
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
Quick Overview Sunday to Today
View of rain shower over eastern Catalinas yesterday morning at 10:30 am MST.
We had a widespread and heavy rain event across the entire region during past three days. ALERT maps shown here are for the three day period ending at 10:30 am yesterday. Total event amount here at house was 1.55 inches. This was heaviest rain event at the house since August 2021!
Flow in the Rillito peaked at just over 6000 CFS yesterday.
Forecast from NWS this morning indicates fair weather next couple of days, but with cold morning lows, resulting in frost and freeze warnings. Morning view today (below) is from 9:15 am.
Saturday, January 14, 2023
Brief Update
Partly cloudy over the Catalinas and metro area at 10:49 am MST this morning.
Winds will become gusty tomorrow ahead of the first wave - 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast above shows steady wind speeds forecast by the model valid at 10:30 am tomorrow morning. Forecast below from same model run is forecast for total precipitation through midnight tomorrow.
Current statement from the NWS webpage is below.