Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Significant Storm Outbreak



Early morning view of the Catalinas from 6:00 am MST today.

There was a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms yesterday over the central US. Plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Visala) for 24-hours ending at 0601 UTC last night - note that storms were still very active at that time.

Plots of reported severe storms from SPC for 24-hours ending at 1414 UTC this morning. Above shows reports only, while below shows reports plotted on the 13 UTC outlook from yesterday morning.

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Widely Scattered Showers Yesterday



Clouds over the Rincons at about 5:00 am MST this morning, showing just a bit of pre-sunrise color.

There were widely scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area yesterday late afternoon and evening. Note that six ALERT sites recorded rainfall (above for 24-hours ending 6:30 am), with heaviest shower occurring near Green Valley

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala -above - for 24-hours ending at 0703 UTC this morning) shows small clusters of storms with some activity continuing after midnight. There was thunder here and winds of 20 to 30 mph; the airport had thunder from 6 to 10 pm but also no rain; while nearby DM had thunder with a gust to 44 mph at 9 pm, along with 0.01" of rain.

The trough at 500 mb had moved east of Tucson by 12 UTC, as per morning analysis below, so chances for more showers is at best very slight.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

May 15th Outlooks



View at 5:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons and Redington Pass.

Outlooks (GEFS plumes above and GFS through 06 UTC May 31st below) hold out little hope for any rainfall through rest of the month. The three month outlook (from NWS CPC - second below) indicates warm and very dry conditions continuing for Arizona through July.


Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Yesterday's Storm Reports

 

Yesterday's preliminary storm reports (from SPC) plotted on the 1300 UTC Outlook.

Monday, May 06, 2024

Monday May Sixth



View of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this morning showing cloudless skies overhead.

The first full week of May is expected to be warm and dry. Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS are shown here for QPF (above), T (below) and wind (second below), with not much indicated for enire week. Remember that the temperature plumes for the airport have a cool bias - the NWS forecast high for today is 81F and 88F for tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe thunderstorm outbreak today for parts of the Plains - see graphic and text below. Current soundings and upper-air charts can be found at the SPC webpage (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/).

Wednesday, May 01, 2024

May Day

View of the Catalinas a few minutes before 7:00 am MST this morning - air looks to have a bit of haze in it.

During April we only had rainfall here at the house on April 1st - some early morning showers, and then more during late afternoon/evening totaled 0.35".

 We have now been dry for 30 days and main question is: will we see any more rain before summer thunderstorm season begins in late June or early July? Long range forecasts (from WRF-GFS above and NWS CPC below) indicate that May will continue very dry.

Monday, April 22, 2024

Earth Day 2024