Chance For Showers

View of Rincons at 6:15 am this morning.

Only two sites in the ALERT Network reported rain in the last 24 hours, as per plot above.

Winds were very strong yesterday and last night. Airport has been gusting over 50 mph since around 9:00 pm last night. Max gust at airport reached 63 mph, but nearby obs at Atmo and DM indicated peaks of only 37 and 36 mph.

Plumes for QPF from the 06 UTC GEFS runs (above) indicate chances for light showers this evening and again later next week. The POPs for same runs reach 70 percent at TUS this evening (below).

NWS graphic showing chances for precipitation tonight - above. Current forecast for the airport shown below.

Nasty Morning

Blowing dust obscuring skies and mountains this morning.

High wind warning in effect with numerous strong gusts. Airport has reported 47 mph; DM and Atmo 37 mph; and I estimate 40 to 50 mph here at house. Surface map from from 11:15 am MST (below) shows current situation.

Significant Wind Event

View of cloudless skies and Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning.

NWS products this morning are focussed on the impending wind event that models have been indicating for several days - see previous posts. Graphic above provides specifics re tomorrow's High Wind Warning. The graphic below shows POPs for gusts of 70 mph or higher, which are focussed downwind of the mountain ranges.

Current forecast for the airport (above) included blowing dust and low visibility for tomorrow. A forecast from this morning's NBM runs (below) shows strong surface winds and low relative humidities valid tomorrow morning. Big changes relative to the beautiful morning we have today.

More Light Rain

View from campus at a bit after midnight showing heavy shower obscuring the Catalinas.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am MST (above) shows a widespread, but mostly light, event affecting northern and western portions of the Network. Here at house there was 0.12" in gauge (couple of hundredths fell yesterday afternoon with rest occurring after midnight last night); airport had 0.12" also as did DM; and Atmo came in with 0.08". No CG flashes were detected in southeast Arizona yesterday or last night.

The 12 UTC GFS 3 hour forecast (above) shows a strong closed low at 500 mb over Nevada this morning.

The 12 UTC NBM forecast of precipitation through 24-hours (above) keeps most nearby precipitation on the mountains. This morning's NWS forecast for the airport through Thursday is shown below.

Bit More Rain In Gauge

Pre-sunrise view looking toward the Rincons at about 6:30 am MST this morning.

ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above) shows most reports across northeast portion of the Network. Amounts were light. Here at house there was 0.14" from the morning shower (see previous post) - Atmo reported 0.02", while the airport and DM each had a Trace.

Plumes for QPF (from the GEFS 06 UTC runs above) continue to show showers next day or two and then again toward end of week. Plumes for winds from same runs (below) continue to indicate very strong winds next weekend. The POPs at the airport (second below) stay generally less than 50 percent.

Current forecast for today and tomorrow (above) and morning NWS graphic (below) forecasting maximum wind gusts next weekend - quite a way out to indicate specific wind speeds!

Morning Showers

Heavy shower this part of town at 8:50 am this morning.

ALERT Network reports for 24-hours ending at 8:30 am this morning (above). We had 0.19" here with thunder; TUS reported gusts to 58 mph with thunder and 0.14"; DM had thunder and gusts to 36 mph with 0.05"; and Atmo had gusts to 40 mph with 0.21". I only see one site in the Network with over half an inch.

Plumes for QPF (above from 06 UTC GEFS runs) indicate a bit more in way of showers early and late in period. Plumes for winds (below, from same runs) indicate windy today, but very windy next weekend.

POPs for the airport are high today (above), in contrast to current NWS forecast that has relatively low POPs (below).

Forecast For Holiday Weekend

Light shower at eastern end of Catalinas at 8:30 am MST this morning. Monday is Columbus Day, which is still a Holiday for some folks.

Only a few scattered rainfall reports in the ALERT Network this morning (above). Same with CG flashes detected - a few in eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon (below).

The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory for tomorrow, as per graphic below.

Current SPC plumes for QPF at TUS shown above, and morning forecast for TUS is below.