Very Quiet Day Yesterday

View of the Grand Canyon at 10:00 am MST this morning, from Grand Canyon Village.

Despite the active forecasts for yesterday afternoon and evening (see previous post), it turned out to be very quiet. The ALERT chart for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am (above) shows only one meagre report from east edge of network. 

Plumes for QPF today (above - from 06 UTC GEFS runs) again indicate an active afternoon and evening. The TUS POPs from same runs are very high today and the drop but gradually increase toward end of coming week. Current NWS morning forecast for the airport is at bottom, indicating only 40 percent chances this evening.

Rain But Not Here

View toward Rincons and Redington Pass at about 5:30 am MST this morning.

There was widespread, light rain across southern portions of the ALERT Network yesterday (above, for 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning). Note that only one site reported more than half an inch. Nothing here - making the current dry spell at house two weeks long.

There were 13 reports of severe winds yesterday evening across southeastern Arizona (below from SPC). The airport reported a gust to 71 mph with thunder and 0.29", while DM had thunder, gusts to 55 mph and 0.42".

Current plumes for QPF at TUS from 06 UTC GEFS runs. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) reach over 50 percent for a number of days during coming week. Current NWS forecast for the airport is at the bottom, with a Flash Flood watch for this evening..

Showers And Gusty Winds

Pre-dawn color over the Rincons at about 5:00 am MST this morning.

Morning graphics from the NWS show chances for thunderstorms today (above), and blowing dust advisory areas for this afternoon (below). Panel at bottom is 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for winds valid this afternoon. (Note - panel below is hard to read here but is more clear on NWS webpage.)

July Summary

 

Storms on Catalinas at 5:40 pm on July 16th.

Rainfall during July totaled 1.09" - this was the fifth driest July here since 1999. There was measurable rain on 7 days. There were two days when I estimated gusts of 40 to 50 mph with the storms.

Scattered Showers

Catalina sunrise view at 5:40 am MST this morning. Lightning flashes east of Rincons occurred around 4:00 am (bottom).

Numerous CG flashes detected through 1303 UTC (below) and ALERT reports (above) avoided main metro area and region north of Catalinas. Airport reported a gust to 48 mph and a Trace; DM reported thunder and a gust to 30 and Atmo reported a gust to 30 mph - all around midnight. Perhaps a Trace and thunder here but can't verify this.

Dry Spell Continues

Golden skies over the Rincons at 5:00 am MST this morning.

Another very suppressed day yesterday as shown by dearth of activity over southeast Arizona: above detected CG flashes through 0903 UTC from atmo, and absence of any reports across the entire ALERT Network below.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above, from o6 UTC runs) shows slight chances for showers tonight and later in week. The POPs for TUS from same runs (below) reach 40 to 50 percent for several periods through early next week. Current forecast from NWS indicates 30 percent POPs for airport tonight and then no mention of showers again through Friday.

IR image from 1440 UTC (below) shows the two hurricanes in eastern Pacific: Cat 1 Fausto left heading toward Hawaii and Genevieve right which has reached Cat 5 (157 mph or stronger) briefly this morning. 

Orion above the Rincons at 4:45 am MST this morning.

Just a few CG flashes detected over eastern Pima County during the 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC (0203 am - above) this morning. Only two sites across entire ALERT Network had rain during the 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning (below) - dry here.

Plumes for QPF at airport (above, from 06 UTC runs) indicate slight chances for light showers next several days. The TUS POPs from same runs (below) indicate 40 to 50 percent chances for TUS. The current NWS weekend forecast for the airport is at bottom.