Sunday, March 19, 2023

Coming Week

View of Catalinas at 6:30 am this morning shows high, thin cirrus overcast.

Plumes  from 06 UTC WRF-GFS are shown here. Forecasts for QPF at airport (above) are consistent showing rain at the airport from Tuesday into Thursday morning - there is a large spread with the operational GFS one of the heavier members. Forests for temperature and wind (below) indicate significant temperature drop on Tuesday followed by slow warming. Forecasts also indicate several windy periods during coming week.

Forecast for coming week (through 5:00 am next Sunday - above) indicates a wet week for most of Arizona - note the very heavy totals across the Rim country. Current forecast from the Tucson NWS Forecast Office is shown below.

Friday, March 17, 2023

St. Patrick's Day

Early morning view toward the Rincons before sunrise today. Below is 2:00 pm MST view of showers on the Catalinas yesterday.

Green hair is in today - photos at bottom from Philadelphia and Chicago.

Scattered showers yesterday afternoon produced rain amounts of 0.04" or bit more at many sites across the ALERT network (above and below). Areal coverage appears to have been 30 % or so. Here at house we had 0.09" during the early afternoon.

Thursday, March 16, 2023

Yesterday's Rain

 View above from 11:15 am MST this late morning shows scattered low clouds beneath a cirrus overcast - the morning has been a bit dreary because of the high overcast.

Yesterday's showers produced widespread rains across the metro area, and even mostly rain on the Catalinas. ALERT maps below are from 7:00 am this morning for past 24-hours. Here at house we received a total of 0.09" from several periods of light showers during the day.

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Chance For Showers

Another morning with spectacular skies over the Rincons a bit after 6:00 am MST.

IR satellite image from 8:55 am (above) shows large cloud mass covering much of Arizona. The skew-T plot from Yuma at 14 UTC this morning (below) shows a nearly saturated troposphere, with strong west-southwesterly winds aloft.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo (above) is for precipitation through 5:00 pm tomorrow. That model keeps heaviest precipitation well to our north. The GEFS plumes for QPF have been very consistent last several days, indicating about 0.30" of rain at the airport (below). The morning weather graphic at bottom is from the NWS Forecast Office webpage.

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Quick Look Ahead


Golden skies over the Rincons this morning. High clouds moving over Arizona from southern California will make the morning seem a bit dreary at times.

Doing a quick look here using the GEFS plumes from 06 UTC. The forecast for precipitation at the airport (above) indicates some chances for showers after mid-week. Temperatures (below) remain mild, while the model forecasts indicate the possibility of several windy periods during the week - especially on Wednesday and Saturday. It has been dry here for almost 10 days now.

Monday, March 06, 2023

Back From Travel

 We've been away on a trip to Santa Barbara and returned late yesterday. When we left early morning on the 2nd of March it was snowing lightly here at house, with a quarter of an inch or so on the plants. This was the first snow here at house in quite a while.

Photo of snow in the Catalina foothills mid-day on Wednesday, March 2nd. Amounts exceeded a foot up at higher elevations in the near-by mountains.

ALERT precipitations for past seven days - most of this fell on March 1st and 2nd, although there was some more recent snow on the Catalinas. Here at the house there was 0.39" in the gauge when we returned from our trip yesterday evening. So, a nice winter storm event coming at the start of meteorological Spring (March, April, May). 

Monday, February 27, 2023

Sunday's Precipitation

View of Catalinas at about 11:00 am MST yesterday morning shows that snow levels came down onto the foothills before the morning precipitation ended.

ALERT measurements for the event (above and below) show that considerable rain fell on the mountains before it changed over to snow. Here at the house showers began before sunrise and continued into mid-morning - total here was 0.34".

Looking ahead to mid-week, and start of March, the 00 UTC runs from the GEFS indicate another event on Wednesday the 1st. The QFP plumes are shown above, and plumes for P-Type (below) indicate strong chances for rain and snow mixed before the event ends. Second below shows 00 UTC WRF-GFS precipitation forecast through 5:00 am on March 2nd, as our unsettled period continues.

Saturday, February 25, 2023

Showers Likely

View of Rincons at 7:05 am MST this morning showing chaotic skies.

The TWC/TUS morning sounding (above) shows strong winds aloft ahead of a Pacific closed low off of California. The low is forecast to move eastward and cross our area tonight and tomorrow, bringing low-elevation showers and mountain snows.

Plumes here from the 06 UTC GEFS runs show QPF (above), temperature (below), and precipitation type (second below). Showers are indicated at the airport tomorrow morning and again on Thursday night. Amounts forecast are fairly substantial for both events - which would bring a wet end to February, as well as a damp start for March.
Temperature continues to vary considerably (above) with two cold periods indicated. The plumes for precipitation type (below) indicate chances for snow mixed with the rain during both precipitation events.

Forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-RR (second below) shows the model's forecast for total precipitation through midnight Sunday night. Looks like an unsettled week ahead as meteorological winter comes to an end.

Thursday, February 23, 2023

More Showers

A bit of sunshine broke through to the west end of the Catalinas at 5:15 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

It was another day yesterday with widespread but mostly light rain amounts and more snow on Mt. Lemon. ALERT plots above and below are for the 24-hours ending at 9:00 am this morning. Here at the house we had a repeat day, with 0.17" in the gauge.

Below is forecast (from the 12 UTC WRF-RR) for precipitation through midnight Saturday - model keeps the rain to our northwest until Sunday.

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Winds And Showers


Snow falling at the General Store in Summerhaven at 9:15 am MST this morning. Down at bottom are current warning graphics issued by the NWS Forecast Office. Winds are very strong at the airport, where a gust to 51 mph occurred at 5:00 am this morning.

Precipitation amounts for past 24 hours over the ALERT network (above and below). Amounts were generally light, except on and near the Catalinas. Here at the house we had 0.17".

At 500 mb (above for 12 UTC) there is powerful trough digging into the West from Idaho to southern California, with very cold temperatures near -40C.
Plumes forecast from the GEFS at 06 UTC are shown here: above QPF, below T, and second below Wind). The ensemble members predict three periods of precipitation at the airport during the coming week. Temperatures are on a roller-coaster ride, and the winds peak out today. A lot of weather to watch across all of the West this week.