View looking toward the Rincons at 6:30 am MST this morning, showing some subtle pink colors. Shown at bottom is view of Catalinas at 7:05 am, with similar cloud colors.
Tuesday, December 05, 2023
East Pacific Storms 2023
Monday, December 04, 2023
Fall Summary 2023
Saturday, December 02, 2023
Widespread Showers Yesterday
Skies are very clear this morning; view above looks north to the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST.
Friday, December 01, 2023
Showers Likely Today
Both sun and clouda at 8:30 am MST this morning - the first day of December.
There was only a bit of rainfall yesterday across the ALERT network (above), with another skiff of snow at high elevations.
At 500 mb (above) there is a broad trough over the Southwest, moving eastward.
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Waiting For Showers
Clouds hanging on the Catalinas at 8:00 am MST this morning.
There has been a bit of light precipitation on the north sides of the Catalinas and Rincons during 24 hours ending at 8:00 am this morning (as per plot above - note that there was also 0.04 down at Elephant Head Butte on the northwest side of the Santa Ritas). Summerhaven webcams show that there was a skiff of snow up there overnight.
The TWC/TUS sounding this morning (above) has essentially no CAPE but is moist in middle levels, with strong, westerly winds above 500 mb. The 500 mb forecast (below from the 06 UTC GFS run and valid at 5:00 pm today) shows last night's shortwave to the east, but with another entering Arizona to the west.
The 12 UTC run of the WRF-RR (above) indicates continued dry conditions for southeastern Arizona, but earlier runs had considerable precipitation across our area - one needs to peruse the various runs to get a better feel for the WRF forecasts for this event. The current NWS forecast (below) calls for high POPs at the airport tonight and tomorrow - NWS also has out alerts for heavy snows at higher elevations - see the NWS webpage for TUS.
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
Chance Of Showers As December Begins
View of clear skies over the Catalinas at 7:30 am MST this morning.
Complicated situation this morning. The morning sounding for TWC/TUS (above) is dry and stable, with moderate westerly winds aloft. At 500 mb several, weak short waves will be crossing Arizona during next couple of days. The GFS forecast below shows 500 mb analysis valid at 06 UTC on December 1st.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast from Atmo (above) shows dry conditions for all of southwestern Arizona through noon tomorrow - quite different than NWS forecast (second above). The 09 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for precipitation through 2:00 am on Saturday the second of December (below) indicates light amounts across portions of eastern Pima County. Will be interesting to watch how all this evolves, as we head toward first weekend of December.
Sunday, November 26, 2023
Chilly Morning
Mostly clear this morning, but with a bit of cloud over Catalinas, perhaps an old contrail off to north of the mountains.
Saturday, November 25, 2023
Light Showers Across Metro - Updated
Skies have cleared at noon here and the morning showers have totaled 0.20".
Catalinas obscured by rain at 7:45 am MST this morning. View at bottom shows Summerhaven at 7:25 am, with light snow occurring.
ALERT data (above for 24 hours ending at 8:30 am) shows rain amounts of 0.04", and more, have occurred only over the northern part of the network. Here at the house there was 0.08" in the gauge at 8:30 am, but light rain was still falling.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (above) shows that yesterday's closed low has opened up and moved eastward. There is a primary shortwave from eastern Montana southward across central Arizona, with a trailing shortwave from northern Utah westward across central California. Features are expected to continue moving eastward during day today.
The morning sounding (above) from TWC/TUS shows moisture below about 650 mb, with dry air above. Winds continue strong and from the west. The GEFS 06 UTC plumes for QPF (below) end rain at the airport around noon today, but also show possiblity of a more signifcant event at the end of the month, continuing into first couple of days of December.
Friday, November 24, 2023
Unsettled Weekend
Colorful skies (purple to yellow/green) over the Rincons at 6:40 am MST this morning, as the long Thanksgiving weekend continues.
At 500 mb (above) there is a large, closed low over the Great Basin. This feature will move east-southeastward during coming two days and weaken markedly. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) is very dry and stable, with strong winds aloft.
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate very slight chance for light showers at the airport tomorrow.
The current NWS forecast (above) indicates 30 percent POPS at the airport late today into Saturday morning. However, the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo (below) keeps southeastern Arizona very dry through next Monday night, which certainly fits with the morning sounding. Regardless, our very dry November continues.
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Windy
View of the Catalinas and deep blue, clear skies is from 9:00 am MST this morning.
Sunday, November 19, 2023
Event Summary
Hard to see, but this image from 3:00 pm MST yesterday captures a partial rainbow.