Chance For Showers

Some build-ups on the Rincons at 8:40 am MST this morning.

The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (above) shows a large trough along the Colorado River that will move across Arizona today. The morning TWC/TUS sounding (below) indicates a sliver of CAPE, that may increase some as cooler, mid-level temperatures move overhead.

Various precipitation forecasts for today are shown here: above are the GEFS plumes from 06 UTC, indicating nearly 100 percent POPs at the airport; below is the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast through 6:00 pm this evening showing precipitation across most of eastern Pima County; and at bottom is the current NWS POPs map for this afternoon. No rain here for past three weeks.

Dusty Start To April

 

Blowig dust over the Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday.

The airport had gusts to 49 mph in the afternoon. Strongest gusts I found in the observations: Safford and Guthrie both had 55 mph, and Winslow reported 51 mph. At one point late in day I-10 was closed both north and also east of Tucson due to crashes and low visibility from the blowing dust.

March Summary

 
 

A cloudy sunrise (with contrail) to start April.

During March there was only measurable rain here on four days - the 7th, 12th, 13th, and 15th - totaling 0.59". The showers actually occured mostly during the nights. This was a fairly typical March, coming in at the 13th driest spot. Forecast models indicate a very dry start for April, as our drought continues.

Astronomical Spring

The vernal equinox (i.e. start of astronomical spring) occurred yesterday during the early morning hours - diagram above.

Outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center for April/May/June are shown here - temperature above and precipitation below. Looks like more of the same for the Southwest.

Tri-State Tornado

The Tri-State tornado occured 100 years ago. Its track strectched from Missouri, through Illinois, and into Indiana, and left nearly 700 people dead. It remains the dealiest tornado to this date.

Figure showing the track that was re-analyzed by Johns and others in second paper referenced below.

St. Patrick's Day Chicago

 

Deadly Storm Outbreak

View of the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this morning.

Light showers were scattered around the metro area during the night last night - we had 0.02" here at the house. See map of reports from MesoWest below.

There was a serious outbreak of severe storms yesterday - summary from the SPC (above) shows more more than 650 reports, with 27 tornadoes. Over a dozen fatalities have been reported.

This morning's 250 mb analysis (above) shows a powerful jet across the southwest that will be heading for the Southeast today. The SPC has issued a rare "High" probability area for more severe storms today - see below