Nasty Morning

Blowing dust obscuring skies and mountains this morning.

High wind warning in effect with numerous strong gusts. Airport has reported 47 mph; DM and Atmo 37 mph; and I estimate 40 to 50 mph here at house. Surface map from from 11:15 am MST (below) shows current situation.

Significant Wind Event

View of cloudless skies and Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning.

NWS products this morning are focussed on the impending wind event that models have been indicating for several days - see previous posts. Graphic above provides specifics re tomorrow's High Wind Warning. The graphic below shows POPs for gusts of 70 mph or higher, which are focussed downwind of the mountain ranges.

Current forecast for the airport (above) included blowing dust and low visibility for tomorrow. A forecast from this morning's NBM runs (below) shows strong surface winds and low relative humidities valid tomorrow morning. Big changes relative to the beautiful morning we have today.

More Light Rain

View from campus at a bit after midnight showing heavy shower obscuring the Catalinas.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 8:00 am MST (above) shows a widespread, but mostly light, event affecting northern and western portions of the Network. Here at house there was 0.12" in gauge (couple of hundredths fell yesterday afternoon with rest occurring after midnight last night); airport had 0.12" also as did DM; and Atmo came in with 0.08". No CG flashes were detected in southeast Arizona yesterday or last night.

The 12 UTC GFS 3 hour forecast (above) shows a strong closed low at 500 mb over Nevada this morning.

The 12 UTC NBM forecast of precipitation through 24-hours (above) keeps most nearby precipitation on the mountains. This morning's NWS forecast for the airport through Thursday is shown below.

Bit More Rain In Gauge

Pre-sunrise view looking toward the Rincons at about 6:30 am MST this morning.

ALERT reports for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above) shows most reports across northeast portion of the Network. Amounts were light. Here at house there was 0.14" from the morning shower (see previous post) - Atmo reported 0.02", while the airport and DM each had a Trace.

Plumes for QPF (from the GEFS 06 UTC runs above) continue to show showers next day or two and then again toward end of week. Plumes for winds from same runs (below) continue to indicate very strong winds next weekend. The POPs at the airport (second below) stay generally less than 50 percent.

Current forecast for today and tomorrow (above) and morning NWS graphic (below) forecasting maximum wind gusts next weekend - quite a way out to indicate specific wind speeds!

Morning Showers

Heavy shower this part of town at 8:50 am this morning.

ALERT Network reports for 24-hours ending at 8:30 am this morning (above). We had 0.19" here with thunder; TUS reported gusts to 58 mph with thunder and 0.14"; DM had thunder and gusts to 36 mph with 0.05"; and Atmo had gusts to 40 mph with 0.21". I only see one site in the Network with over half an inch.

Plumes for QPF (above from 06 UTC GEFS runs) indicate a bit more in way of showers early and late in period. Plumes for winds (below, from same runs) indicate windy today, but very windy next weekend.

POPs for the airport are high today (above), in contrast to current NWS forecast that has relatively low POPs (below).

Forecast For Holiday Weekend

Light shower at eastern end of Catalinas at 8:30 am MST this morning. Monday is Columbus Day, which is still a Holiday for some folks.

Only a few scattered rainfall reports in the ALERT Network this morning (above). Same with CG flashes detected - a few in eastern Pima County yesterday afternoon (below).

The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory for tomorrow, as per graphic below.

Current SPC plumes for QPF at TUS shown above, and morning forecast for TUS is below.

Unsettled Weekend

Nice color over the Rincons (top) and Catalinas (bottom) a bit before 6:30 am MST this morning.

Plumes for QPF (from 06 UTC GEFS runs - above) continue to indicate a wet and active weekend. The chances for rain at the airport from same runs (below) indicate high POPs for the 11th and 12th. 

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport is below.

The Tropics remain very active, as shown in the TPW image for 15 UTC (above). TS Rachel is west of Baja; Hurricane Simon is off the Mexican Coast; and Hurricane Isaias is headed for a landfall on the Florida Panhandle (current NHC outlook shown below).

Complicated Situation

Pre-sunrise glow over the Rincons a bit before 6:00 am MST this morning. View at bottom shows crescent moonrise, looking same direction at a bit before 5:00 am.

There are two tropical storms over the eastern Pacific this morning. Former Hurricane Rachel (above) is much weakened and it is forecast to turn northeast and be over the lower Colorado River Basin by Sunday. To the South, TS Simon is forecast to rapidly become a major hurricane and move toward Cabo Corrientes by Sunday. Thus, there will be lower pressure both to north and south of GoC, competing to pull moisture both northward and southward.

The TPW image (below, from 15 UTC) shows Rachel, Simon, and also Hurricane Isaias over the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, high PWs extend about halfway up the GoC, so a real tug-of-war is setting up for the weekend. At this time, it is not clear to me whether Rachel or Simon will dominate the moisture transports.

The NWS take on this is a bit different than mine, as per graphic above. The current NWS forecast for the airport (below) puts the emphasis on Saturday, with POPs at 50 to 60 percent. Regardless, it should be an interesting weekend here. Note that hurricane in GoM is fcst to move rapidly northward and strike the eastern Gulf Coast area by tomorrow evening.

Fair Weather

Views of the Rincons at 5:45 am MST (above), and of the Catalinas at 6:45 am (bottom - both on October 5th). Outlook from NWS for coming work week (below) indicates mild and dry conditions continuing.

Heavy Rain Here

Downpour on campus yesterday morning at 9:45 am MST.

Widespread reports of over an inch across the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above). Here at the house there was 0.90" in the gauge. Atmo reported 0.79", while DM had 0.34" and the airport noted 0.31".

The NWS morning forecast for the airport (below) calls for an extended period of tranquil weather as October begins.