Friday, October 23, 2009

Big Changes in Pattern Likely Part 3

Above is the GFS North Pacific surface forecast for 96 hours from this morning's data (1200 UTC 23 October 2009). The GFS forecasts a tremendously strong surface low to develop in the west Pacific, while a strong low over the central Pacific is weakening and splitting into north and south components. The west Pacific low appears to be related to the extra-tropical transition of once Super Typhoon Lupit, which has been looping and wandering around the area east of Luzon. Definitely a difficult forecast situation. the central Pacific system appears to be interacting with the remnants of former Hurricane Neki, which developed south of Hawaii and is now west of the islands and moving northwardas a Tropical Storm - another complex forecast situation. So, the forecast pattern changes over the U.S. are related to the model forecast, upstream solutions for the very complex situation over the North Pacific. The flip-flopping of forecasts in the two models compared here probably results from both their initializations and the way they forecast the interactions between the tropics and the higher latitudes to evolve over the next few days.

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