Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill and the Next Short-Wave

Since the explosion of the oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, on April 21st, there were a couple of days of strong southerly winds followed by westerly, northwesterly, and then light and variable winds. This wind setting, along with currents, has led to the current configuration of the spill (silvery smear southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi in top image). The current 500 mb short-wave over the West is forecast to stagnate, as well as deepen, more or less covering the western third of the US. The NAM forecasts an extended period of strong, low-level southerly flow with a fetch from over the Caribbean Sea (see bottom image for 850 mb forecast valid Friday morning). So it appears that the battle against the spill plume will have to intensify, if it is to be kept offshore.
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The SSTs over the Gulf are still a degree or two below normal; whereas, SSTs over the Caribbean are a degree or two warmer than normal. The long fetch from lower latitudes forecast by the models will set the stage for a number of days of renewed severe thunderstorm activity over the central half of the US. See the SPC Convective outlooks.