Strong Frontal Passage This Afternoon

Strong Pacific front with the 500 mb cutoff low has pushed into west-central Arizona this morning with rapdily falling temperatures and gusty surface winds. For example, Kingman's temperature has fallen steadily since 4 pm yesterday and had dropped 41 degrees F by 6 am this morning. The front was accompanied by gusts to around 40 mph and some light rain there.
Winds ahead of the front are strong southerly and Tucson's morning sounding is flirting with having some CAPE - note the sounding is a bit dry wrt the GPS PW.

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The NAM forecast from 1200 UTC this morning does not forecast precipitation over southeastern Arizona during the next 24 hours. However, the model indicates a strong frontal passage this afternoon (see 850 mb forecast above) along with very strong positive vorticity advection at 500 mb (bottom image). Thus, it appears likely that the front may produce some showers and thunderstorms along with the gusty dusty surface winds. Should be an interesting afternoon and evening.

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Two more vorticity maxima are forecast to swing around the 500 mb cutoff before it moves away from Arizona. The NAM forecasts anywhere from 1/10 to 1/2 an inch of precipitation with the system after 1200 UTC tomorrow morning.