Someone asked recently about ensembles and probabilistic forecasting. The Northeast NWS Forecast Offices have been issuing experimental QPF snow forecasts this winter, as per:
Here are the current probabilistic forecasts for low end snowfall (below) and top end amounts below - both forecasts being at the 10% chance level. These were developed using various ensemble forecasts and illustrate - to some degree - where probabilistic forecasting is finally headed. Kudos to NWS Eastern Region (others also?).
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