Monday, April 03, 2023

Windy Today Cooler Tomorrow

Perfectly clear skies over the Catalinas this morning, as we start the first, full week of April.

During the next 36-hours a strong trough at 500 mb will be swinging across Arizona. The GFS 500 mb forecast (above) is valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning. This feature will bring windy conditions today, followed by much cooler temperatures tomorrow.

Forecast plumes here are from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS. Precipitation (above) is flat-lined at zero. The temperature trend (below) shows a significant drop for tomorrow, but with gradual warming for rest of the week. Winds are very strong for today and then mostly quite light for rest of week.

The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast for winds at 2:30 pm this afternoon (above) indicates strong speeds for southeast Arizona and high winds for northern locations. The current morning forecast from the Tucson NWS office (below - for the airport) includes a wildfire Red Flag Warning, as well as an advisory for wind gusts that could reach over 40 mph. 

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