View toward Rincons at 5:15 am MST this morning shows pre-sunrise colors, plus the waning, crescent moon.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24-hours ending at 1:03 am this morning (above) shows that all of the southwestern half of Arizona was almost totally suppressed yesterday wrt thunderstorms. I had thought that storms might develop over the mountains, but this didn't happen, except in Cochise County.
There were a couple of light, afternoon showers that moved across parts of the metro area. It's possible we had a sprinkle here, but if so, I didn't notice it.
Plots of 24-hour hour precipitation (above from ALERT and below from MesoWest) for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am show isolated, light rainfall amounts.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows an elongated, very weak anticyclone over the Southwest. Height gradients are weak, with only one contour crossing the entire West.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS is again very stable, with a deep, old boundary layer (BL) and at best a sliver of Cape. Winds aloft are very light through the entire troposphere.
Looks like another day where it will hard to get thunderstorms going. However, the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast for rainfall through 6:00 am tomorrow morning (below) predicts widespread, but light showers for most of eastern Pima County. This may be over-done given the morning sounding. Time will tell.
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