Chance For Showers Mid-Week

Clear skies over the Rincons pre-sunrise this morning (note - sunrise was at 5:42 am MST).

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for temperature (above) indicate a distinct cooling at mid-week, as April draws to a close.

Plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate chances for measurable rain on the 30th and 1st of April and May. There's a large range in both the timing and amounts among the various ensemble members.

The GFS forecast from the 06 UTC run (below, for 500 mb) indicates a distinct shortwave from Wyoming south-southwestward across the Four Corners, Tucson, and central Baja at 00 UTC on May 1st.

The GEFS POPs for the airport (bottom) reach above 50 percent on the 30th. So far, April has been rain-free here at the house, so Thursday and Friday will be interesting.

Earth Day 2026

 

Thanks to Walt Kelly and Pogo for this graphic.

And also to Charles Schulz' Snoopy.

Windy And Slight Chance For Showers

Note added Tuesday - several sites northwest of the Catalinas had sprinkles and a Trace yesterday afternoon. Nothing here at the house.

Clouds and a bit of virga overhead at 7:30 am MST this morning, but with some blue sky off to the north.

NWS graphic shows forecast wind gusts for southeast Arizona (above) - gusts at the airport yesterday reached 32 mph.

 Plumes for QPF (from 09 UTC runs at SPC) shown above indicating chances for light showers into tonight. Current NWS forecast for the airport below. There has been no rain here at the house since the end of March.

Isolated Showers End March

View of the Catalinas at 2:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon, March 31st. Reports across the ALERT Network are shown below for 24-hours ending at 8 am this morning. Here at the house we had 0.01" a bit before 2 pm. Monthly total for March was 0.28", with rainfall on only two days. I did note a thunderstorm on the 9th. The month closed out with considerable winds and dust.