Chances For Showers By End Of Week

Pink clouds over the Catalinas at about a quarter to 7 am MST this morning.

The 06 GEFS plumes are shown here for the coming week. Plumes for QPF  (above) indicate increasing chances for showers by Sunday, continuing into next week. Last rainfall here at house was only 0.01" back on February 17th, so a fairly long dry spell continues for a few more days.

The POPs (above) peak at around 50 percent on next Monday. Temperatures are forecast to cool considerable after tomorrow (below). Strong and gusty winds are indicated for tomorrow however (second below).

Brief Summaries

 

Perfectly clear skies here in Tucson, a bit before 10:00 am MST on Tuesday, March 2nd.

Summary 2025: Total rainfall here at the house during 2025 was 10.14". This is a tie for the 7th driest year here, since 1999, with 2002. The driest year was 2020, with only 5.48". There was thunder here on at least 18 days - may have missed a few due to my poor hearing.

Summary for winter (December, January, and February) 2025/2026: Total winter rainfall (no snow here) was 1.90". This was the 9th driest winter since 1999. The driest winter here (2005/2006) saw only 0.04" of rain! I did not note any days with thunder during the past winter.

Hot Ending for February

 

Graphic from the NWS today warning of record heat as February draws to a close.

Blizzard In Northeast

View of I-95 in Boston a while ago, versus TUS outlook for the coming week here!

Some Sprinkles Here

 

View of Catalinas yesterday morning from about 11:35 am MST shows some light showers over this part of town. They didn't amount to much, but did leave 0.01" in the gauge here.

Light Showers This Morning

Note - Total rain yesterday was only 0.06" here.

View looking toward the Catalinas at 10 am MST this morning, showing showers over northern parts of metro area. Image at bottom shows some snow at same time up at Summerhaven General Store.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate very light showers this morning.

Alert Network rainfall reports are concentrated across the northern portion of the array, with generally light amounts. Here at the house we've had 0.06" so far this morning.

Current NWS forecast for the airport indicates clear skies, but with slight chance of showers overnight.

Rain Event 17 February

View of rain at 3:30 am 17 February, looking toward the Catalinas.

Rainfall reports across the ALERT Network on 17 February (above and below). Here at the house we had 0.19".

Statement from the NWS this morning re gusty winds (above), and am forecast for the airport (below).

Widespread Showers Yesterday

View of Catalinas through light rain at 8:30 am MST yesterday morning.

ALERT rainfall yesterday (above and below) across metro area. Coverage forecasts were good, but amounts at many sites were lower than expected. Here at house we had 0.11" during the day - this was our first rain in February.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate good chances for more light showers on the 17th next week. The plumes for temperature (below) show warming through the weekend, and then cooling next week. The plumes for POPs at the airport (second below) hit 90 percent for next Tuesday, and one member mixes in a bit of snow later in the week.

Unsettled Period Ahead

Pre-sunrise view at a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons.

Things will become unsettled as a strong short-wave moves across Arizona during the day on the 13th - above shows GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 18 UTC on the 13th.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate strong chances for light rain on Friday into Saturday morning. Another period of possible showers follows early next week.

The temperature plumes (above) forecast a very cool day on the 13th, and several cool days early next week. The plumes for wind (below) indicate strong winds next week.

The POPs from the GEFS runs indicate nearly 100 percent chances for measurable rain at the airport on the 13th. Chances early next week are much less, but one member also mixes in a touch of snow.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for total precipitation through 12 UTC on Valentines Day (above) indicates some amounts around an inch across eastern Pima County. The current morning forecast from the NWS is shown below. Not sure what led to the 70 percent POPs for next Monday night.

Quick Update

View of Catalinas at 9:30 am MST this morning - February 9th -showing perfectly clear skies

Plumes from the 06 GEFS runs shown here for QPF, T, and POPs. Chances for light showers are greatest on the 13th and 14th (above). Temperatures are forecast to fall dramatically, after a warm day today (below). While POPs exceed 50 percent on 13th and early on Valentine's Day (second below).

Groundhog Day 2026

 

Punxsutawney Phil says more winter weather to come.

Below is classic image from the Bill Murray film.

Widespread Rain Event

View of Catalinas at 5:00 pm MST yesterday on the 24th of January.

Rain amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for two day period ending at 8 am this morning. Quite a few sites had over half an inch, with a few sites reporting over an inch.

Here at the house we had a total of 0.34" - looks like rain here had ended by midnight last night.

Light Showers Most Of Area

View toward the Catalinas at 6:40 am MST this morning, showing showers along the foothills.

Precipitation amounts from the ALERT Network (above and below) for 24-hours ending at 8 am this morning. Here at the house we had 0.12"; the airport had 0.16"; DM had 0.12"; and Atmo reported 0.09".  Two sites, one in the Catalinas and one in the Rincons, had more than half an inch, while most amounts were quite light.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF are focused on this afternoon and tonight, with amounts from a tenth to just over half an inch. The plumes for POPs (below) hit 100 percent tonight.

Forecast (below) from the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR shows predicted precipitation amounts through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.