Pre-sunrise view at a bit after 7:00 am MST this morning, looking toward the Rincons.
Things will become unsettled as a strong short-wave moves across Arizona during the day on the 13th - above shows GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 18 UTC on the 13th.
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate strong chances for light rain on Friday into Saturday morning. Another period of possible showers follows early next week.
The temperature plumes (above) forecast a very cool day on the 13th, and several cool days early next week. The plumes for wind (below) indicate strong winds next week.
The POPs from the GEFS runs indicate nearly 100 percent chances for measurable rain at the airport on the 13th. Chances early next week are much less, but one member also mixes in a touch of snow.
The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (from Atmo) for total precipitation through 12 UTC on Valentines Day (above) indicates some amounts around an inch across eastern Pima County. The current morning forecast from the NWS is shown below. Not sure what led to the 70 percent POPs for next Monday night.
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