Light Showers Here

Pre-sunrise colors looking toward the Rincons at 6:30 am MST this morning.

There were light showers around the northern and far western portions of the ALERT network during the past 24 hours (above plot for for period ending at 8:00 this morning). There also reports of 0.04" at Altar Wash and Arivaca to the southwest of the area shown. Here at the house we had a total of 0.06" for the event, which started on afternoon of the 15th. This was first measurable rainfall since October 13th.

 

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC runs (above and below) indicate an extended wet period beginning mid-week, The GEFS POPs peak at near 90 percent for the airport on Wednesday.

The 06 UTC GFS forecast above shows accumulated precipitation through 06 UTC on 1 Dec - amounts are heavy across much of the country. The morning forecast graphic below shows the morning forecast for temperatures and rainfall amounts for next few days. Product is more legible at the NWS FO web page.

Chance for Showers

Crescent moon rising over Tucson at 3:15 am MST this morning.

Morning 500 mb analysis (from SPC - above) shows a deep low off of California.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS models - QPF above; temperature below; and wind second below. The forecasts indicate increasing POPs starting tonight and increasing through the week. Temperatures (below) are indicated to cool markedly after today; while gusty winds are likely tomorrow and Tuesday.

The POPs from the GEFS runs (above)  show values as high as 70 percent at the airport. The current morning forecasts from the NWS are shown in table below.

October Summary

 

Heavy rain on morning of 13 October - looking north toward the Catalinas from campus.

During October there was measurable rain on only two days - the 11th and the 13th. But amounts were heavy: 1.02" on the 11th and 1.22" on the 13th. The total of 2.24" was the third highest for October here since I started my records in 1999. Wettest October was 3.25" in 2018 and second wettest was 2.44" in 2015.

More Clear Skies

View of the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning showing Venus rising (top) with a helicopter passing below.

GFS forecast (from 06 UTC - above) showing total rainfall through 0600 UTC on November 12th - leaving the Southwest and northern Mexico very dry.

Below is IR view of Cat. 5 Hurricane Melissa this morning, about to strike Jamaica with winds of more than 155 mph. Melissa is forecast to cross eastern Cuba and then head out into the Atlantic.

Very Dry

View of very clear skies this morning over the Catalinas at 9:30 am MST.

The GEFS plumes from 06 UTC this morning (below) indicate no rainfall at the airport for the coming week!

Showers This Morning

View of Catalinas at 8:35 am MST this morning shows an isolated shower over the mountains.

First scan radar image (above for 8:25 am) shows isolated showers over eastern Pima County, and plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 8:25 am (below) shows a couple of flashes over eastern Pima County, with more widespread activity to our northwest.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) show chances for light precipitation at the airport today. The POPs from the same runs (below) indicate 40 percent for the airport this afternoon. After today's activity the models indicate fair weather conditions through the weekend. 

Quick Look At Holiday Weekend

Heavy rain looking north from campus yesterday at 7:25 am MST.

Many sites across the ALERT Network had amounts of a half inch to over an inch yesterday (plots above and below for 24 hours ending at 7:00 am this morning). Here at the house we had 1.22 inches.

For the long holiday weekend many sites had amounts of one to four+ inches (three day amounts above and below). Here at the house we had 2.24 inches of much needed rain.

Heavy Rain Here

Heavy rain moves into our part of town about 6:00 pm MST yesterday afternoon.

Thunderstorm activity was centered over the metro area, as per plot above of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC last night (from Atmo).

There were widespread rains across almost the entire ALERT network yesterday - plots above and below show totals through 7:00 am this morning. We had 1.02" here at the house. The 4.37" report looks a bit suspicious, since it occurred within a single hour. 

The GEFS runs at 06 UTC try to do a repeat today. Plot above shows QPF for the airport, and plot below shows the very high POPs through Monday. This would be quite unusual to have another heavy event after such widespread storms yesterday - we will see.

Damp Outlook

View looking toward the Rincons at 6:30 am MST this morning.

Plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS indicate that it gets very wet as we head toward the weekend. The POPs from the same runs (below) get very high (up to 80 percent) into early next week.

This morning's NHC outlook for weakening Hurricane Priscilla (above) now keeps the remnant depression west of Baja. TPW map from 14 UTC (below) shows Priscilla near Baja, with remnants of Octave to its southwest. Very high values of TPW extend almost to 30 degrees north.

GFS run from 06 UTC (above) shows total rainfall through 1800 UTC on Monday, with very large amounts extending into southeastern Arizona. Current graphic from the NWS (below) highlights heavy rains over the weekend. Looks like big changes may be coming our way.

Supermoon

 

Yesterday's Harvest, supermoon rising over the Statue of Liberty.

Venus over the Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning.

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the Airport (above) indicate a wet period beginning by the end of the week. The range of total amounts by the 14th is very large, ranging from near zero to over 5 inches.

Plumes for PW (above) show a rapid increase during the next several days, and POPs at the airport (below) reach 80 percent by next Sunday.

The wild card impacting the forecasts is Hurricane Priscilla shown in the IR image above from 1720 UTC today. The NHC forecasts the Cat. 1 storm to track northwestward off the coast of Mexico (below), before weakening and turning northward by the weekend.

The GFS forecast from 12 UTC morning (below) through 12 UTC on the 15th shows very heavy rains over the Southwest and much of Mexico. However, the track of Priscilla in this model run is considerably east of the NHC track - so this will be a wait to see what actually happens scenario.

September Summary

Heavy thunderstorm over this part of town at 5:00 pm MST on September 17th.

Monthly rain totals for September from the ALERT Network - above and below. Note the many sites with one to wo inch plus amounts.

Here at the house we had a total of 2.76 inches of rain - this was second wettest September here, following 2.78 inches in September 2014. The storm pictured at top produced 1.06" of rain here at the house, along with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

During the month I recorded 8 days with thunderstorms. Measurable rain fell on 6 days  The amount here was a high outlier compared to nearby ALERT sites. A couple of small cells made direct hits here, kicking up our total.