Thursday, July 06, 2006

Could NWS use high-tech observations more effectively?

Art Douglas has posted several comments - in one of these he makes what seems a perfectly reasonable suggestion that the NWS consider using areal observations from high-tech observing systems that are routinely used by forecasters and researchers. He suggests considering radar-estimated rainfall and CG lightning strike data to determine when the monsoon has arrived where. The advantages over using a single point observation seem obvious. This, to me, seems a reasonable suggestion, but it also raises a very important question and issues related to how the NWS uses observations.

Consider that:

The new WSR-88D doppler radar system has been operating nationwide for more than a decade. The radar processing systems routinely produce maps of radar-estimated precipitation accumulations.

The CG lightning strike detection system has been operating nationwide for about two decades.

The satellite observing systems have been in place, and continuously improving, since the early 1970s. Satellite rain estimation techniques have been used by researchers and the NWS for more than two and a half decades.

It seems clear that the NWS could draw upon observations from these systems to define better the onset of the monsoon.

But, the larger question is: Why doesn't the NWS use data and products from any of these systems (systems whose cost to the nation has been at least in the tens of billions of dollars) to verify, assess, or crtically evaluate their forecast products?

For example, the SPC could routinely use CG lightning strike data to evaluate the reliability of their thunderstorm outlooks.

Satellite and radar products could be used to evaluate what actually happens relative to point weather observations and etc. etc.

If anyone knows more on these issues, please share your information with us.

Note - now that I've thought about it a bit more, it seems that the NHC might make more quantitative use of the satellite data in assessing their forecasts than other components of the NWS.

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