Shown above is an Eastern Pacific IR image from 1400 UTC Sunday morning. At the present time there is a long plume of tropical and subtropical moisture extending northward into the S/W that will be digging down the coast. Thus, there is a nice "pineapple" connection in place. However, the NAM does not pick this plume up as the S/W digs. Rather, the NAM indicates that westerly flow around the base of the trough will shunt the low-latitude moisture off to the east and into Mexico. This connection should be monitored closely the next two days, since it has the potential to bring a more significant precip event to the Southwest than the model currently is predicting.
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