Monday, October 03, 2011

Stormy New Week For The West

Thundershowers were more isolated yesterday, with the main activity occurring from the Rincons east and northward. We had a sprinkle here from a dissipating shower and a nice partial rainbow (above). Only 10% of the ALERT stations had rainfall during past 24-hours (most of it prior to 6 pm yesterday afternoon). Amounts were very light, except in Vail area where Davidson Canyon had 0.67".

This week will be a stormy one for much of the West. The 500 extended trough along the west coast (see 1200 UTC 500 mb analysis for this morning above) is kicked eastward by a following short wave - this acts, finally, to kick the cutoff out of the East. By 84-hours the second system has cutoff over the West (see 84-hour NAM forecast from this morning below).

Below is NAM 24-hour precipitation forecast valid at 5 pm next Thursday.

Here in southeastern Arizona it looks like isolated showers again today - mostly east and north. Then a frontal passage tomorrow evening with the first short wave - the early run of the Atmo WRF-GFS tries to bring a line of storms eastward with the first front, but they dissipate out to the west of Tucson. Thursday looks like an active day for this area with strong winds, dust, and then showers - along with an almost winter-like frontal passage. So, lots to watch during the new week!

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