Monday, December 19, 2011

Event Evolved About As The Models Had Forecast

The precipitation event of yesterday afternoon and last night is winding down this morning (Monday, December 19th). My quick assessment of things at around 6 am MST is that the Atmo early WRF-GFS had the preferred QPF forecast - particularly with its forecast yesterday (see post below) of the event tending to focus north and east of downtown with a pronounce rainfall gradient across the lower elevations of eastern Pima County. Here at the house we had 0.39"; DM had 0.37"; Atmo had 0.22"; and TUS had 0.13". Looks like all forecasts for the airport were too optimistic. Shown above are the amounts from the Pima County ALERT network for central and western parts of the area - note the range from 0.04" at a southwest station to the 0.47 at an eastern station. Plot below is for eastern part of the ALERT network - note the highest amounts are in the Redington Pass area, with a maximum amunt of 0.67. Snowfall amounts are not measured by the network, so what exactly fell at higher elevations is currently an unknown for me.

The total here at the house for December currently stands at 2.38". This makes the month the second wettest December of the 12 years for which I have December observations. Four of these years had less than 0.10" for the month and four years had over an inch. The wettest December at house occurred in 2007, when the precipitation total was 3.23".

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