TD 18 has developed in the Caribbean overnight. Visible image above shows the TD currently well south of Jamaica at 1415 UTC, 22 October 2012. In the short-term the system is forecast to strengthen and move to the north-northeast.
The current morning run of the NAM model forecasts the system to be over eastern Cuba by 84-hours (next Friday at 1200 UTC) - 500 mb above and surface forecast below. The strong short-wave in the west is forecast eventually (by ECMWF) to interact with the tropical system. The ECMWF forecasts a strong storm for the Northeast, but the GFS takes the system out into the central Atlantic. Weather chat boards starting to buzz about the ECMWF forecast.
For Arizona, looks like a taste of winter by the end of the week and a strong cold front moving across all of the state.
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