Thursday, November 08, 2012

Significant Cool Down For The Weekend

The 500 mb closed low that is forecast to dig and move across the West is currently centered off the Oregon coast - see water vapor image above from 8 am MST this morning. The middle and upper-level moisture and clouds that were west of Baja yesterday are now over the Southwest, with heavy, high clouds here in Tucson at sunrise.

The primary impacts of this weather event will be winds and dramatic cooling, as well as the possibility of some dust and light precipitation. The early WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo indicates several periods of strong winds - the graphic above is the 10-m wind forecast for 1 pm MST tomorrow afternoon, indicating strong southwest winds ahead of the system. The WRF-GFS forecasts the cold front across the Tucson metro area around midnight tomorrow night, with Saturday highs only in the upper-50s (will really seem cold after several days of 90F highs).

The WRF has lessened its forecast of precipitation over southeast Arizona, compared to yesterday's run. The graphic below is the total forecast of precipitation from now through midnight Saturday night. The forecast indicates that precipitation will mostly occur at the higher elevations, with the most significant precipitation occurring along the Rim and White Mountains.

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