Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Quick-Hitting, Moisture-Starved System Tonight

I've shown two total PW products here - above is from CIMSS at Univ. of Wisconsin at 18 UTC today and below is from CIRA at Colorado State Univ. at 2013 UTC today. Both products show the moisture-starved character of the system that's about to cross southern Arizona - for example, the light blue maximum area in southern Arizona (below) is just over 1/2 inch PW.

The forecasts from the 6 am morning run of the WRF model also show little in the way of precipitation with this event. The WRF-NAM forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 1 am MST tonight (above) shows little in the way of showers with the front and the total precipitation forecast through noon tomorrow (5 November 2013 - below) shows only very light amounts of rainfall. These occur during a short period of a few hours during the early morning hours. The WRF-GFS forecasts even less precipitation than does the WRF version.

The trailing system that will affect southern Arizona this weekend seems a bit more interesting (at this time), and will bring very cold thicknesses to our area, so that what snow might fall could affect quite low elevations.

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