A weak short-wave trough in middle and upper levels will cross Arizona today. However, even though this system brought some sloppy rains to California, it will bring mostly middle and high level clouds to Arizona with perhaps a few sprinkles. The 13 UTC IR image (above) does look impressive, with the wave very distinct to the west of Baja. However, the MIMIC loop of PW (image below is from 10 UTC) indicates the highest PW (light greens) is actually now retreating south and southwestward. The early WRF-NAM forecast of PW (second below valid at noon today - Saturday, December 6th) indicates PW values remaining near and below an inch as the system moves over Arizona. The WRF runs indicate a bit of precipitation at highest elevations only.
The GFS ensembles (above is 500 mb average and spaghetti plot) indicate a ridge dominating much of North America through Tuesday/Wednesday and beyond for the coming week. Only "spaghetti" in the 96-hour plot above is within a weak southern branch of the 500 mb flow that is of little consequence for the Southwest. So a good week for those folks over in Winterhaven, who will be putting up decorations for their Festival of Lights.
No comments:
Post a Comment