Shown above is ECMWF 500 mb and surface forecast from last evening that is valid at 5 pm MST on Christmas day. It appears that the 10-day forecast from the ECMWF (shown in an earlier post) will verify fairly well, and the GFS is now very similar also. The trough in the West is not quite as intense as it was in the long-term forecast, but it will be the main weather-maker for Christmas day, which will also have storminess in the Northeast. (Note - it appears that tomorrow could be a tough travel day, with delays possible at some major airports across much of the eastern third of the country. Will take a closer look a bit later today.)
Here in southeastern Arizona it appears that main impact of the trough on Christmas will be blustery winds. Shown above is the early WRF-NAM forecast of 10-m winds valid at 11 am on the 25th, indicating strong south-southwest winds here in eastern Pima County. By 4 pm (below) the winds have shifted to westerly as the front associated with the trough heads eastward. Looks like strongest winds on Christmas hit at the Rim Country and White Mountains and then shift eastward into New Mexico. The WRF-NAM does forecast some very light showers over the southeastern corner of Arizona Christmas evening.
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