Strong Cold Front For End Of Week

Coolest morning of the Fall here with a low of 40 F. The Sasabe and Empire RAWS sites were flirting with freezing with lows of 35 and 36 F.

The 06 UTC plumes from the GEFS indicate a strong, cold frontal passage early next Thursday morning (November 17th) with very chilly highs on both Thursday and Friday (above). However, only a couple of the ensemble members forecast spits of rain with the front, although one member seems a bit bonkers with its half inch forecast.

The front is ahead of a very cold, negatively-tilted short wave that is forecast to move across the West (above is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of 500 mb winds and temperature valid at 4:00 am on Thursday). The 10-m wind forecast for the same time (below) indicates strong, lee-slope winds for all the Sky Islands of southeast Arizona.