Saturday, September 05, 2020

Hot And Dry Holiday Weekend (Updated Slightly)

Clear and dry skies this Saturday morning of Labor Day Weekend. Same at Denver (bottom), where a hot weekend may give way to snow and cold by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Massive 500 mb anticyclone (12 UTC analysis above from Univ. of Wyoming weather page) is centered over the Four Corners this morning. Note the extreme height at Tucson - 6010 m, a very rare occurrence.

Some forecasters/broadcasters seem to think that the 500 anticyclone positioned like this means an associated influx of low-level moisture. But, such is not the case, and this weekend will just be miserably hot and dry. The current NWS Excessive Heat Warning is highlighted below in this morning's forecast for the airport. The temperature here, and also at the airport, at 6:00 am MST this morning was 86 F - not exactly a cool morning for walking at sunrise.

The coming week appears pretty grim also. Forecast of PW (above from 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast) is valid at 6:00 am on September 10th, and shows all the West continuing VERY dry. Forecast below is for total precipitation (from same model run) through 5:00 pm on September 12th - good grief, what a start for meteorological Fall.

Below is the current drought monitor map for the western half of the country. Drought conditions prevail over a huge area and much of Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas are experiencing significant drought conditions.

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