Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Smoke Decreasing Some Today

Another red sunrise this morning. However, smoke has diminished some overhead (below), and is mainly off to east (and also out west) this morning. Down at bottom the first image shows the smoke at LAX this morning. Second image at bottom shows Old Faithful erupting for a large crowd yesterday afternoon.

Weather news today is focused on Hurricane Sally, which is drifting slowly northwestward off the Mississippi/Alabama coasts. Sally is a Cat 1 hurricane, with 85 mph winds. Visible image above and IR view below, at a bit before 0730 am MST.

The 500 mb analysis (above from SPC at 12 UTC) shows a very weak cyclonic circulation, centered between here and Albuquerque, embedded within the large anticyclone. Heights at Phoenix are now within 10 m of surrounding sites. But, Chihuahua, Mexico, is still 30 to 40 m too low relative to other observations - disregard the poor quality control, which lets the analysis routine decide there is a Southern Hemisphere low south of Chihuahua. 

The morning sounding (above) from TWC reamins discouraging with only slight bit of CAPE below a nasty inversion. Precipitable water is just less than inch. Nothing much to look forward to except for continued highs in the 90s, that may flirt with 100 F next few days.

Forecast below (from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS run at Atmo) is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm on the 22nd (next Tuesday).

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