Slight Chance For Showers Later This Week

Hazy skies over Tucson at sunrise today. Down at bottom is view of a colorful sunrise over at Silver City, New Mexico.

Forecast above is from the 06 UTC GFS and is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm MST next Sunday. That model keeps us dry through the week. However, the QPF plumes from the GEFS (below) indicate very slight chances for sprinkle showers during mid to late week. Current NWS forecast this morning includes a 20 percent chance for showers at the airport during every forecast period from Tuesday night through the day Friday.

The chances for showers are due to a western trough that shifts eastward, but with a closed low developing over northern Baja. Analysis at 500 mb this morning (above) shows a chaotic pattern across the country, with the weak, southwestern trough stretching from Montana southward across southern California. The GFS 500 mb forecasts below are valid at 5:00 pm today and at 5:00 pm on Wednesday afternoon. The operational GFS gets this feature a bit far south and keeps it fairly dry. Measurable rain here during early June would definitely be unusual, and we'll follow the evolution of the pattern through the week.

Drought Status As We Head For June

There were problems at the blog site yesterday - so post here was meant to go up yesterday morning. There were interesting lenticulars over the Catalinas Wednesday afternoon (above and below).

This week's grim drought status map (above) and current outlook through August (below) from the NWS Climate Prediction Center. Two views of situation at Lake Powell are at bottom.

The cool season summaries (from Mike Crimmins' webpage) emphasize the extent of the dryness for Tucson (above); Sierra Vista (below) and Deming, NM (second below).

Similar plots for other sites in Arizona and New Mexico at:

https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/coolSeas/current.html

Last Week Of May

View of Catalinas this morning shows cloudiness to northeast and several contrails to the north. Down at bottom is view of heavy clouds over the San Francisco Peaks up at Flagstaff.

Plumes for QPF (above from 06 UTC runs this morning) indicate that we're liable to end May with no measurable precipitation. Last significant rain here at house was about two and a half months ago - having to water many of the yard plants to keep them alive. Summer rains will hopefully come before end of June.

Sunrise May 23rd

 

Several sunrise shots here: Wilcox above and Show Low and Flagstaff below.

More Wind Today

Some high clouds this morning, but they are very far off to the northeast. Down at bottom is a current view of Dangling Rope Marina on Lake Powell, in southern Utah just a bit northeast of Page, Arizona. Note how very low the water level is in Lake Powell.

At 500 mb this morning (above) there is a very large, closed low over the western third of the country. There appear to be two circulation centers within this low: one over far southwestern Idaho and the other along the California coast northwest of San Diego.

As the low moves eastward, we'll have another day with strong winds and critical fire danger, as per above from the SPC and below from the TUS Forecast Office. Winds yesterday produced gusts as high as 38 mph at the airport.

Graphics here are from the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecasts at Atmo. Forecast of steady wind speeds above is valid at 2:30 pm. Note that a very large portion of both Arizona and New Mexico will be dealing with the gusty winds. 

Forecast below, is for total rainfall from now through the end of the month (00 UTC on June 1st) - Arizona remains DRY!

Middle May

Visible satellite image of the Southwest at 7:06 am MST this morning (above) indicates only isolated cloudiness over northern Arizona. Image below shows the devastation done to the grass on the Mall because of the mobile vaccination center that has been located there.

Image at bottom shows Tropical Cyclone Tauktae, which is moving northward, just off the west coast of India. 

At 500 mb this morning there is a large, closed low centered over the Great Basin, as well as an east-west trough extending from the low to southern Wisconsin. The precipitable water graphic (below valid at 6:00 am) shows how very dry the western US is, which explains the limited cloudiness shown in the satellite image above.

Main impact of the system moving by to our north will be gusty winds during the afternoons this week - as per 06 UTC plumes for steady wind speeds shown above. The 06 UTC WRF forecast (below valid at 2:30 pm Tuesday) indicates that tomorrow will have the strongest winds during the next several days. 

 

First Day With 100 F

Nice, crisp view of Baboquivari this morning. Down at bottom is view of I-10 traffic snarled southeast of Phoenix, map shows just where this mess is.

Yesterday was first day of the summer with a high of 100 F at the airport.  High temperatures above for the 13th are from MesoWest - there's one site showing a suspect 106 F. While DM only reported 96 F, Marana had 100 F and the Atmo site on campus reported 101 F. Off the map were two reports: 101 F at Oracle and 100 F along I-10 toward New Mexico, just north of Dos Cabezas Peaks.

Plumes for wind speeds (from 06 UTC GEFS - below) indicate a windy weekend for the metro area.

More Heat - No Rain

Sunrise this morning at the Mt. Lemmon SkyCenter - deep blue and perfectly clear skies. Down at bottom: I-10 sunrise from Wilcox, and early am (6:25 MST) at La Paz, Mexico.

The GEFS forecasts for temperature through mid-week next week (above) indicate that max temperatures will continue to flirt with 100 F. Below is current NWS forecast for the airport, through Thursday. Nearby grid point forecasts for Ryan Field and Marana indicate two days each with 100 F this week. Second below is 06 UTC GFS forecast of precipitation through 11:00 pm on May 25th - looks like model forecasts one little speck of rain on Mt. Graham across all of southern Arizona.

Tropical Storm Andres

NOTE - Andres is the earliest East Pacific storm on record - by one day.

The first tropical storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific developed early yesterday morning. TS Andres is forecast to weaken rapidly (below) as it moves westward. The satellite presentation of the storm is very disorganized, and not worth showing.