Sunday, May 30, 2021

Slight Chance For Showers Later This Week

Hazy skies over Tucson at sunrise today. Down at bottom is view of a colorful sunrise over at Silver City, New Mexico.

Forecast above is from the 06 UTC GFS and is for total precipitation through 5:00 pm MST next Sunday. That model keeps us dry through the week. However, the QPF plumes from the GEFS (below) indicate very slight chances for sprinkle showers during mid to late week. Current NWS forecast this morning includes a 20 percent chance for showers at the airport during every forecast period from Tuesday night through the day Friday.

The chances for showers are due to a western trough that shifts eastward, but with a closed low developing over northern Baja. Analysis at 500 mb this morning (above) shows a chaotic pattern across the country, with the weak, southwestern trough stretching from Montana southward across southern California. The GFS 500 mb forecasts below are valid at 5:00 pm today and at 5:00 pm on Wednesday afternoon. The operational GFS gets this feature a bit far south and keeps it fairly dry. Measurable rain here during early June would definitely be unusual, and we'll follow the evolution of the pattern through the week.

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