View of Catalinas this morning at a bit before 7:00 am MST. Shallow cumulus were hanging over the mountains.
The 12 UTC TWC/TUS sounding (above) continued very dry and very stable. However, there were strong, southwesterly winds below 700 mb.
The 06 UTC run of the WRF-RR forecasts steady wind speeds above 20 kt at the airport at 3:00 pm (above), so gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible at wind prone locations across the metro. The 500 mb closed low and trough are trending eastward rather than digging sharply into Arizona, as had been forecast the last couple of days (below shows model 500 mb forecast valid at 06 UTC tonight). The forecast for rainfall from the same model run at Atmo (second below) forecasts only an isolated, light shower for eastern Pima County through 5:00 am tomorrow morning.
Finally, the NHC is forecasting Tropical Storm Nicole to intensify to Cat 1 hurricane strength today before it comes ashore near Miami (below).
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