Low clouds hanging on the Catalinas at 7:50 am MST this morning.
The TWC/TUS morning sounding (above) has moistened a bit since yesterday, with PW up to 0.59". Most striking aspect of the sounding are the strong southwesterly winds aloft - note the 100 kts (115 mph) just above 500 mb. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast for surface wind speeds at 10:00 am this morning is shown below. Model forecasts strong winds over southeast Arizona and most of New Mexico.
Considerable variance among WRF precipitation forecasts for this system, Forecasts here valid through midnight tonight. Above is from 12 UTC WRF-RR with just light showers for parts of the metro area, Below is from 00 UTC WRF-GFS indicating widespread rain for Pima County, with heavier amounts over metro and the mountains; could perhaps yield first rain in my gauge for November.
Current morning forecast from the NWS Forecast Office is shown at the bottom.
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