Have visitors and took a break during the past few days. View above is looking toward the Rincons about 6:00 am MST this morning.
The morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows cold, short-wave over the Northwest. While the TWC/TUS morning sounding (below) shows strong low-level winds near and below 850 mb, with a strong upper-level jet near 200 mb. Sounding is also dry (PW of half an inch) and very stable.
The 12 UTC GFS forecasts the trough to dig sharply south and to be over western Arizona by midnight tomorrow (above).
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecasts the trough to bring light showers to eastern Pima County (above graphic shows forecast precipitation through midnight tomorrow night). The model run also forecasts strong winds later today - as per wind forecast below valid at 1:00 pm this afternoon.
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