Mid-June Looking Toward July

Nice color over the Rincons this morning at 5:30 am MST.

Looks like a windy day today - above shows 06 UTC GEFS plumes for wind and below shows 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast wind speeds valid at 2:30 pm this afternoon. The NWS Tucson office has issued a Red Flag waring for much of southeastern Arizona (second below) because of the high wildfire danger. Current forecast calls for gusts as high as 39 mph this afternoon at the airport.

Forecasts from the 06 UTC GFS for the 500 mb pattern at 7 days (above) and 14 days(below). By late June this model forecasts the 500 mb anticyclone to have shifted northward over New Mexico. The 14 day forecast for total precipitation (at bottom) continues to keep the Southwest dry; however, the situation looks interesting for early July. There's been no rain here at the house since May 18th, so a change would be most welcome.