Small cumulus bubbling over the Catalinas at 6:50 am MST this morning.
Models continue to forecast a surge of higher PW into our area, and then a gradual dry-out during next week. Above shows PW plumes from the 06 UTC runs of the GEFS ensemble. Values reach almost to an inch and a half.
The plumes for QPF at the airport (below) have become quite agressive for tomorrow into Monday, with average amounts reaching half an inch.
Current forecast for weakening TS Alvin (above from NHC) indicates storm decaying near the south end of Baja today. However, the 13 UTC MIMIC chart of total PW (below) shows higher values have reached the southern border of Arizona.
Current NWS forecast for the airport (above) shows high POPS for Sunday and Sunday night, decreasing on Monday. Their forecast of amounts is shown below.
I checked my records back to 1999 and found that there has never been measurable rainfall here at the house during the first five days of June - so rain tomorrow would be quite an unusual event!
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