Sunday, January 10, 2010

Long-term GFS Forecasts Very Wet

While I usually focus on the shorter-term numerical forecasts, I have noticed for several days now that the GFS longer-range forecasts are indicating the development of a very wet pattern for the Southwest. In the near-term, several S/Ws break under/thru the western North America ridge. But, by 228 hours (see above) from the 12 UTC initialization this morning (Sunday January 10th) the GFS forecasts six consecutive 12 hour periods of significant rainfall over Arizona - i.e., from Tuesday afternoon of the 19th right through Friday the 22nd. This would be the rainiest period over AZ in many months - IF it were actually to occur in the physical world. While I show the operational GFS forecast above, the GFS ensemble members are all quite consistent in forecasting this 72-hour period of substantial rains. Something very interesting to keep an eye on as the month progresses!

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