Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Weekend Blizzard In Chicago Area?


Not much weather out in this part of the country, so taking a look other directions. The ECMWF forecasts a strong winter storm over the weekend (top image valid Sunday at 12z). The central pressure is not terribly deep but the attendant pressure gradient west of the low is very impressive. The ECMWF, if perfectly accurate out at this range, would bring an ugly storm and blizzard conditions to the Chicago area Saturday night and Sunday morning. However the GFS model (bottom graphic for surface at same time), while also predicting a strong winter storm, has it located considerably further south, centered near Memphis. The culprit short-wave trough at 500 mb is south of Alaska over the northeast Pacific. So, lots of uncertainties but certainly an interesting weather scenario predicted for next weekend by both long-range, global models!




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