Friday, February 18, 2011

Still A Complex And Confusing Situation

The above is the NAM analysis of 500 mb heights and vorticity at 1200 UTC this morning - Friday, February 18th. The model analyzes numerous vorticity streamers and maxima within the west-coast trough eastward to the Great Lakes. The strongest maximum is analyzed far west of central California. The way that this feature moves into the bottom of the trough and then eastward will play a strong role in what happens here in southeastern Arizona. This morning the models continue to forecast that most precipitation, through Sunday, will be to the west and north of the Tucson area. However, both the NAM and this morning's early WRF now indicate QPFs in metro Tucson of about a tenth of an inch.
Yesterday 2 ALERT gauges up in the Catalinas had very light precipitation, with no rainfall measured through the remainder of the network.

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