Monday, April 18, 2011

ECMWF vs GFS At 168 Hours

The operational members of the GFS and ECMWF are again quite different at 168 hours from 00Z last evening (18 April 2011). Both forecast a negatively-tilted short wave at 500 mb slipping into the western US next Sunday afternoon. But the ECMWF (bottom) is much stronger and further south, which is somewhat typical when comparing the two models at longer time frames. Height differences indicate that the ECMWF is about 150 m lower than the GFS (top) over southern Arizona. Once again something to watch over the coming week. Meanwhile, we suffer under dry, mostly clear skies here in Tucson area, with the most interesting weather challenge being whether it will be breezy or windy during the afternoons.
Further north, a distinct plume of high PW fromt the Pacific is impacting northern California to northern Utah/western Wyoming - see composite PW image below. Temperatures are warm with this event and most surface stations (bottom image) are reporting rain at 15Z this morning - note the moderate rain at Salt Lake City and snow in western Wyoming at Big Piney and Jackson.

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