Monday, April 04, 2011

An Active Week On Tap

The large 500 mb cutoff that has been wandering around out west of Baja for a week or so, will apparently be ejcted and move asross the Southwest during mid-week. This will bring a chance of showers that will depend upon how much moisture comes along for the ride.
Out at 144-hours the models are in suprising agreement on another cutoff digging into the Southwest (see the GFS and ECMWF operational foecasts above). The GFS ensemble members have little spread over the Southwest at 144-hours and all of the members predict precipitation in southeast Arizona for the 24-hours ending at 5 pm MST on Saturday the 9th. The GFS ensemble average and individual member forecasts for 500 mb heights are shown below. So, it looks like more chances for a bit of rain during the first full week of April than we saw during all of March.

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