Sunday, April 24, 2011

Verification For The 168-Hour Forecasts

A number of days ago I posted the 168-hour GFS and ECMWF forecasts valid at 5 pm MST this Easter afternoon. The forecasts are at top and middle, and the verifying NAM analysis is at bottom. It appears that the GFS was clearly better than the ECMWF in this situation. The GFS was a bit too far north and fast on the vorticity maximum but the height forecast for southeastern Arizona was quite good. The ECMWF was too deep (quite considerably) and too slow - so a come-back performance by the GFS which beat-up on the ECMWF!

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