The early run of Atmo's 1.8 km grid WRF-GFS model forecasts several bands of showers to move across eastern Pima County, especially tonight and early tomorrow morning. Above is model's forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 5 am on Saturday January 26th. Below is the forecast (on the 5.4 km grid) of accumulated precipitation through 2 am on the 28th. The model has a distinct minimum of precipitation across south-central Arizona, while forecasting large amounts of precipitation in the Rim country.
Zooming in on the 1.8 km grid, the model forecasts widespread, but light, precipitation across all of southern Arizona through 6 am Saturday morning (above). However, the model forecasts a shift of the activity to the north and east after tomorrow morning. Below is the total precipitation forecast thought 2 am on the 28th, indicating little additional precipitation in much of Pima County, except at higher elevations. The larger-scale, long-term models have been very erratic with this event, so confidence is not high in the GFS conditions provided to the WRF - will have to watch how this all evolves.
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